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Table 1 Input Parameters for Mammography Simulation Model

From: A simulation model approach to analysis of the business case for eliminating health care disparities

  Base Model Parameter Range Used in Sensitivity Analysis Source(s)
State Transition Probabilities    
Annual Incidence of Cancer .003   [6467]
Probability of Annual, Biennial, and Sporadic Mammogram Patterns HEDIS 70%
- Annual = 0.197
- Biennial = 0.395
- Sporadic = 0.270
- None = 0.138
  [5963], authors' calculations
  HEDIS 80%
- Annual = 0.242
- Biennial = 0.483
- Sporadic = 0.182
- None = 0.093
  
Increase in Probability of Mammography Following False Positive .10 increase relative to probability in absence of false positive   [50]
Probability of Cancer Found, Given Screening Pattern - Annual = .003
- Biennial = .003
- Sporadic = .005
- None = .008
  [68, 69]
Distribution of Stage at Diagnosis with (W/O) Mammogram Annual
- In Situ = 0.13
- Stage I = 0.41
- Stage II = 0.37
- Stage III = 0.07
- Stage IV = 0.02
  [7076]
  Biennial
- In Situ = 0.13 (0.04)
- Stage I = 0.41 (0.32)
- Stage II = 0.37 (0.43)
- Stage III = 0.07 (0.13)
- Stage IV = 0.02 (0.08)
In Situ = 0.04 - 0.21
Stage I = 0.32 - 0.57
Stage II = 0.16 - 0.43
Stage III = 0.04 - 0.13
Stage IV = 0.02 - 0.08
 
  Sporadic
- In Situ = 0.17 (0.04)
- Stage I = 0.29 (0.32)
- Stage II = 0.40 (0.43)
- Stage III = 0.09 (0.13)
- Stage IV = 0.05 (0.08)
  
  None
- In Situ = (0.04)
- Stage I = (0.32)
- Stage II = (0.43)
- Stage III = (0.13)
- Stage IV = (0.08)
  
Probability of Remission in Year of Diagnosis, Given Stage at Diagnosis Stage I = 97.5%
Stage II = 94.0%
Stage III = 81.0%
Stage IV = 66.0%
  [73, 77]
Probability of Death from Other Causes .01   [78, 79]
Probability of Continued Remission vs. Recurrent Disease, Given Stage at Diagnosis and Initial Remission Stage I = 0.975
Stage II = 0.94
Stage III = 0.81
Stage IV = 0.66
  [73, 77]
Probability of Death, Given Recurrent or Progressive Disease 0.79   [73, 77]
State Values    
Utility of Well, Non-Cancer States 1.0   [8086]
Utility of Newly Diagnosed Cancer, by Stage at Diagnosis Stage I = 0.90
Stage II = 0.85
Stage III = 0.81
Stage IV = 0.81
Stage I = 0.80 - 0.98
Stage II = 0.80 - 0.98
Stage III = 0.80 - 0.98
Stage IV = 0.80 - 0.98
[8086]
Utility of Undergoing Treatment, by Stage at Diagnosis Stage I = -0.10
Stage II = -0.20
Stage III = -0.25
Stage IV = -0.25
  [8086]
Utility of Progressive Disease 0.40 0.30 - 0.69 [8086]
Probability of Employment - no Cancer 1.00   Arbitrary - simulation assumes women employed
Probability of Employment in Year of Cancer Diagnosis, by Treatment Stage In Situ = 0.86
Stage I = 0.70
Stage II = 0.60
Stage III = 0.50
Stage IV = 0.40
  [8894]
Probability of Employment in Year of Cancer Diagnosis, by Remission Stage Stage I = 0.94
Stage II = 0.88
Stage III = 0.81
Stage IV = 0.75
  [8894]
Probability of Employment - Progressive Disease 0.56   [8894]
Other Values    
Costs of Initial Treatment, by Stage at Diagnosis Stage I = $ 22,488.00
Stage II = $ 27,213.00
Stage III = $ 29,220.00
Stage IV = $ 31,476.00
  [48]
Costs of Treatment - Recurrent or Progressive Disease $ 33,000.00   [48]
Cost of Mammogram $ 81.86   Federal Register, 2007
Cost of Followup after False Postive Test $533   [106]
Hourly Wage for Time Missed from Work $ 21.31   Department of Labor, May 2007 [46]