From: A simulation model approach to analysis of the business case for eliminating health care disparities
 | Base Model Parameter | Range Used in Sensitivity Analysis | Source(s) |
---|---|---|---|
State Transition Probabilities | Â | Â | Â |
Annual Incidence of Cancer | .003 | Â | |
Probability of Annual, Biennial, and Sporadic Mammogram Patterns | HEDIS 70% - Annual = 0.197 - Biennial = 0.395 - Sporadic = 0.270 - None = 0.138 | Â | |
 | HEDIS 80% - Annual = 0.242 - Biennial = 0.483 - Sporadic = 0.182 - None = 0.093 |  |  |
Increase in Probability of Mammography Following False Positive | .10 increase relative to probability in absence of false positive | Â | [50] |
Probability of Cancer Found, Given Screening Pattern | - Annual = .003 - Biennial = .003 - Sporadic = .005 - None = .008 | Â | |
Distribution of Stage at Diagnosis with (W/O) Mammogram | Annual - In Situ = 0.13 - Stage I = 0.41 - Stage II = 0.37 - Stage III = 0.07 - Stage IV = 0.02 | Â | |
 | Biennial - In Situ = 0.13 (0.04) - Stage I = 0.41 (0.32) - Stage II = 0.37 (0.43) - Stage III = 0.07 (0.13) - Stage IV = 0.02 (0.08) | In Situ = 0.04 - 0.21 Stage I = 0.32 - 0.57 Stage II = 0.16 - 0.43 Stage III = 0.04 - 0.13 Stage IV = 0.02 - 0.08 |  |
 | Sporadic - In Situ = 0.17 (0.04) - Stage I = 0.29 (0.32) - Stage II = 0.40 (0.43) - Stage III = 0.09 (0.13) - Stage IV = 0.05 (0.08) |  |  |
 | None - In Situ = (0.04) - Stage I = (0.32) - Stage II = (0.43) - Stage III = (0.13) - Stage IV = (0.08) |  |  |
Probability of Remission in Year of Diagnosis, Given Stage at Diagnosis | Stage I = 97.5% Stage II = 94.0% Stage III = 81.0% Stage IV = 66.0% | Â | |
Probability of Death from Other Causes | .01 | Â | |
Probability of Continued Remission vs. Recurrent Disease, Given Stage at Diagnosis and Initial Remission | Stage I = 0.975 Stage II = 0.94 Stage III = 0.81 Stage IV = 0.66 | Â | |
Probability of Death, Given Recurrent or Progressive Disease | 0.79 | Â | |
State Values | Â | Â | Â |
Utility of Well, Non-Cancer States | 1.0 | Â | |
Utility of Newly Diagnosed Cancer, by Stage at Diagnosis | Stage I = 0.90 Stage II = 0.85 Stage III = 0.81 Stage IV = 0.81 | Stage I = 0.80 - 0.98 Stage II = 0.80 - 0.98 Stage III = 0.80 - 0.98 Stage IV = 0.80 - 0.98 | |
Utility of Undergoing Treatment, by Stage at Diagnosis | Stage I = -0.10 Stage II = -0.20 Stage III = -0.25 Stage IV = -0.25 | Â | |
Utility of Progressive Disease | 0.40 | 0.30 - 0.69 | |
Probability of Employment - no Cancer | 1.00 | Â | Arbitrary - simulation assumes women employed |
Probability of Employment in Year of Cancer Diagnosis, by Treatment Stage | In Situ = 0.86 Stage I = 0.70 Stage II = 0.60 Stage III = 0.50 Stage IV = 0.40 | Â | |
Probability of Employment in Year of Cancer Diagnosis, by Remission Stage | Stage I = 0.94 Stage II = 0.88 Stage III = 0.81 Stage IV = 0.75 | Â | |
Probability of Employment - Progressive Disease | 0.56 | Â | |
Other Values | Â | Â | Â |
Costs of Initial Treatment, by Stage at Diagnosis | Stage I = $ 22,488.00 Stage II = $ 27,213.00 Stage III = $ 29,220.00 Stage IV = $ 31,476.00 | Â | [48] |
Costs of Treatment - Recurrent or Progressive Disease | $ 33,000.00 | Â | [48] |
Cost of Mammogram | $ 81.86 | Â | Federal Register, 2007 |
Cost of Followup after False Postive Test | $533 | Â | [106] |
Hourly Wage for Time Missed from Work | $ 21.31 | Â | Department of Labor, May 2007 [46] |