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Table 4 Scenarios 5 & 6: 30% 'good' prognosis, ×1.2 'good' prognosis survival, 50% and 75% switching probabilities, 100% treatment effect for switchers, uniform distribution for switching times

From: Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in randomised controlled trials: a simulation study

True HR and eψ

Method

Mean estimate

Mean SE

SE of mean

95% Confidence interval

Bias

MSE

Coverage (%)

Successful estimation (%)

     

Lower

Upper

    
 

Hazard ratio methods

         
 

ITT

0.9364

0.0909

0.0909

0.7741

1.1328

0.0364

0.0096

93.6

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

0.9204

0.1275

0.1278

0.7016

1.2074

0.0204

0.0167

96.0

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

2.1663

0.3018

0.2975

1.6488

2.8466

1.2663

1.6921

0.0

100.0

 

Time-dependent covariate

3.0639

0.4065

0.4054

2.3625

3.9740

2.1639

4.8466

0.0

100.0

 

Law and Kaldor

0.9396

0.1168

0.1144

0.7364

1.1987

0.0396

0.0147

94.2

100.0

 

Loeys and Goethebeur

0.8435

-

0.2725

0.4578

1.8486

-0.0565

0.0774

92.8

99.9

0.9 & 1.23

AFT methods

         
 

ITT

1.1732

0.2280

0.2311

0.8018

1.7173

-0.0613

0.0572

93.2

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

1.2492

0.1275

0.3479

0.7276

2.1475

0.0146

0.1212

95.9

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

0.2373

0.0665

0.0663

0.1371

0.4115

-0.9973

0.9989

0.0

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Logrank

1.2882

-

0.3862

0.6906

2.2552

0.0536

0.1521

93.8

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Cox

1.2855

-

0.3874

0.6868

2.2531

0.0509

0.1527

93.9

96.3

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Exponential

1.3036

-

0.3693

0.9172

1.9617

0.0691

0.1412

83.6

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Weibull

1.2879

-

0.3857

0.6988

2.2550

0.0534

0.1516

94.5

100.0

 

Branson and Whitehead

1.2841

0.2497

0.3619

0.8772

1.8802

0.0495

0.1334

83.7

100.0

 

Walker et al

2.1037

0.7802

0.7791

1.0276

4.4146

0.8692

1.3624

70.0

99.8

 

Hazard ratio methods

         
 

ITT

0.8073

0.0812

0.0814

0.6629

0.9833

0.1073

0.0181

71.5

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

0.7179

0.1009

0.1019

0.5451

0.9457

0.0179

0.0107

94.8

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

1.6825

0.2388

0.2454

1.2740

2.2223

0.9825

1.0256

0.0

100.0

 

Time-dependent covariate

2.4211

0.3257

0.3396

1.8602

3.1516

1.7211

3.0776

0.0

100.0

 

Law and Kaldor

0.8110

0.1064

0.1046

0.6271

1.0488

0.1110

0.0233

81.2

100.0

 

Loeys and Goethebeur

0.5248

-

0.1728

0.2544

1.0233

-0.1752

0.0606

83.8

99.0

0.7 & 2.04

AFT methods

         
 

ITT

1.5845

0.3208

0.3294

1.0657

2.3569

-0.4563

0.3167

72.2

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

2.0610

0.1009

0.6062

1.1886

3.5793

0.0202

0.3679

94.4

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

0.3894

0.1088

0.1126

0.2254

0.6742

-1.6514

2.7398

0.0

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Logrank

2.1120

-

0.6624

1.1204

3.8159

0.0712

0.4439

94.8

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Cox

2.1062

-

0.6612

1.1095

3.8198

0.0654

0.4415

95.1

92.6

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Exponential

2.1121

-

0.6636

1.3323

3.3923

0.0713

0.4455

87.4

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Weibull

2.1128

-

0.6631

1.1249

3.8301

0.0719

0.4449

94.9

100.0

 

Branson and Whitehead

2.0536

0.4177

0.6096

1.3787

3.0601

0.0127

0.3718

83.0

100.0

 

Walker et al

3.6581

1.3293

1.2498

1.8098

7.5537

1.6172

4.1774

63.9

98.0