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Table 5 Scenarios 9 & 10: 30% 'good' prognosis, ×3 'good' prognosis survival, 10% and 25% switching probabilities, 100% treatment effect for switchers, uniform distribution for switching times

From: Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in randomised controlled trials: a simulation study

True HR and eψ

Method

Mean estimate

Mean SE

SE of mean

95% Confidence interval

Bias

MSE

Coverage (%)

Successful estimation (%)

     

Lower

Upper

    
 

Hazard ratio methods

         
 

ITT

0.9136

0.0911

0.0926

0.7515

1.1107

0.0136

0.0088

94.8

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

0.9235

0.0979

0.0968

0.7504

1.1367

0.0235

0.0099

94.6

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

1.0721

0.1137

0.1128

0.8709

1.3197

0.1721

0.0424

63.7

100.0

 

Time-dependent covariate

1.2253

0.1249

0.1254

1.0035

1.4962

0.3253

0.1215

15.2

100.0

 

Law and Kaldor

0.9121

0.1173

0.1223

0.7088

1.1737

0.0121

0.0151

94.1

100.0

 

Loeys and Goethebeur

0.8933

-

0.1137

0.6975

1.1444

-0.0067

0.0130

95.3

100.0

0.9 & 1.23

AFT methods

         
 

ITT

1.2399

0.2523

0.2519

0.8323

1.8479

0.0054

0.0635

94.7

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

1.2159

0.0979

0.2580

0.7959

1.8583

-0.0187

0.0669

94.9

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

0.8983

0.1911

0.1890

0.5922

1.3632

-0.3363

0.1488

64.4

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Logrank

1.2838

-

0.3018

0.8085

2.0389

0.0492

0.0935

94.6

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Cox

1.2854

-

0.3020

0.8073

2.0820

0.0508

0.0938

94.7

95.2

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Exponential

1.2895

-

0.2934

0.9593

1.8561

0.0549

0.0891

84.8

99.8

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Weibull

1.2836

-

0.3003

0.8153

2.0802

0.0490

0.0926

94.5

99.8

 

Branson and Whitehead

1.2713

0.2589

0.2823

0.8530

1.8954

0.0368

0.0810

92.9

100.0

 

Walker et al

2.9706

1.4458

1.4409

1.1904

20.7004

1.7360

5.0898

57.0

98.6

 

Hazard ratio methods

         
 

ITT

0.7390

0.0760

0.0777

0.6041

0.9041

0.0390

0.0076

92.0

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

0.7267

0.0791

0.0800

0.5872

0.8995

0.0267

0.0071

93.8

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

0.8418

0.0918

0.0938

0.6798

1.0422

0.1418

0.0289

60.1

100.0

 

Time-dependent covariate

0.9698

0.1012

0.1054

0.7904

1.1899

0.2698

0.0839

14.8

100.0

 

Law and Kaldor

0.7397

0.0998

0.1027

0.5679

0.9637

0.0397

0.0121

92.8

100.0

 

Loeys and Goethebeur

0.6840

-

0.0908

0.5243

0.8886

-0.0160

0.0085

95.5

100.0

0.7 & 2.04

AFT methods

         
 

ITT

1.9110

0.4010

0.4163

1.2669

2.8838

-0.1298

0.1901

92.5

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

1.9836

0.0791

0.4501

1.2841

3.0655

-0.0573

0.2059

94.7

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

1.4612

0.3165

0.3284

0.9560

2.2344

-0.5796

0.4438

59.4

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Logrank

2.1150

-

0.5430

1.3172

3.4305

0.0742

0.3004

94.7

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Cox

2.1140

-

0.5395

1.2935

27.2997

0.0732

0.2964

94.9

92.2

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Exponential

2.1112

-

0.5439

1.4578

3.1966

0.0704

0.3008

87.4

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Weibull

2.1150

-

0.5434

1.3189

3.5350

0.0742

0.3008

94.8

100.0

 

Branson and Whitehead

2.0643

0.4343

0.4923

1.3670

3.1186

0.0235

0.2430

92.2

100.0

 

Walker et al

4.1987

2.1153

1.6132

1.6252

17.0861

2.1579

7.2589

68.2

75.4