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Table 2 Posterior mean of the deviance ( D ̄ ), deviance of the mean ( D ( θ ̄ ) ), effective number of parameters ( p D ) as measure of model complexity, DIC value, and mean of logarithmic scores ( LS ¯ )

From: Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

Model D ̄ D ( θ ̄ ) p D DIC LS ¯ p-value
Poisson, I 2034 1931 103 2137 2.046 <0.0001
Poisson, IS 1633 1463 170 1803 1.641 ref.
ZIP, I 2020 1917 103 2123 2.018 <0.0001
ZIP, IS 1637 1467 170 1807 1.644 0.5797
NB, I 2006 1903 103 2109 1.932 <0.0001
NB, IS 1659 1489 170 1829 1.665 0.6841
arcsinh, I 994 886 108 1102 1.967 n.a.
arcsinh, IS 834 636 198 1032 1.960 n.a.
  1. Comparison of DIC for NMMs is not applicable because of different arcsinh-transformed outcomes.
  2. Monte-Carlo permutation test for paired individual logarithmic scores.