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Table 1 Data

From: When is it rational to participate in a clinical trial? A game theory approach incorporating trust, regret and guilt

Variable#

Researcher

Patient

Trial

Utilities $

   

Success of experimental treatment within trial*

95 (80–100)

90 (50–100)

 
 

Assumed 100(1) in the equipoise model (inset)

Assumed 100(1) in the equipoise model (inset)

 
 

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

 

Failure of experimental treatment within trial*

54 (10–100)

16.3 (0–50)

 
 

Assumed 0 in the equipoise model (inset)

Assumed 0 in the equipoise model (inset)

 
 

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

 

Success of standard treatment within trial*

70 (40–80)

84 (50–1100)

 
 

Assumed 100 (1) in the equipoise model (inset)

Assumed 100 (1) in the equipoise model (inset)

 
 

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

 

Failure of Standard treatment within trial*

44 (0–80)

16.9 (0–50)

 
 

Assumed 0 in the equipoise model (inset)

Assumed 0 in the equipoise model (inset)

 
 

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

 

Probabilities

   

Success of experimental treatment (e)

  

0.41 (0.2-0.8)**

   

(0.5 for the equipoise model)

   

(MC modeling: binomial distribution; n = 450***)

Failure of experimental treatment

  

1-e

Success of standard treatment (s)

  

0.59 (0.2-0.8)**

   

(MC modeling: binomial distribution; n = 316***)

Failure of standard treatment

  

1-s

Randomization (r)

  

0.5 (0.2-0.8)

   

(0.5 for the equipoise model)

   

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

Honoring trust (p)

  

0.5 (0–1)

Regret

 

0.2 (0–1)

 
  

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

 

Guilt

0.2 (0–1)

  
 

(MC modeling: triangular distribution)

  
  1. # - sensitivity analysis was performed for the values shown in Table but also for all extreme values (0–1)- the change in the assumptions did not affect the results of the analysis; $- based on the survey of 8 clinical investigators; * assumed to be the same within and outside of the trial; MC- Monte Carlo; **- actual values based on reference [41] is 0.41 (0.37-0.45) for experimental and 0.59 (0.55-0.62) for standard treatment, respectively ***-based on the reference [41].
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BMC Medical Research Methodology

ISSN: 1471-2288

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