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Table 2 Transition model estimates of abstinence and relapse to smoking

From: Simultaneous evaluation of abstinence and relapse using a Markov chain model in smokers enrolled in a two-year randomized trial

  Available data only§ Selection modeling 1 Selection modeling 2
Estimate SE p-value Estimate SE p-value Estimate SE p-value
Transition model         
From smoking to abstinent (abstinence model)
Intercept -3.348 0.456 < 0.0001 -3.381 0.503 < 0.0001 -3.382 0.502 < 0.0001
MDM 0.056 0.166 0.737† -0.026 0.193 0.446 -0.022 0.188 0.453
HDM 0.392 0.158 0.013† 0.322 0.177 0.034 0.329 0.171 0.027
Gender 0.504 0.137 0.0002 0.461 0.158 0.002 0.462 0.157 0.002
Cigarettes per day -0.033 0.008 < 0.0001 -0.035 0.009 < 0.0001 -0.035 0.009 < 0.0001
Motivation to quit 0.144 0.040 0.0004 0.150 0.044 0.0003 0.150 0.044 0.0003
Confidence to quit 0.083 0.026 0.0014 0.083 0.028 0.002 0.083 0.028 0.002
Serious quit attempt 0.295 0.146 0.043 0.333 0.164 0.021 0.332 0.164 0.021
From abstinent to smoking (relapse model)
Intercept -0.939 0.338 0.006 -0.979 0.376 0.005 -0.977 0.377 0.005
Month 18 0.763 0.318 0.016* 0.792 0.306 0.005 0.788 0.301 0.004
Month 24 -0.029 0.342 0.933* -0.012 0.331 0.486 -0.009 0.332 0.489
MDM -0.708 0.331 0.033‡ -0.624 0.372 0.047 -0.629 0.375 0.047
HDM -0.409 0.305 0.181‡ -0.366 0.361 0.155 -0.371 0.363 0.153
Income (> 40 K vs. ≤ 40 K) -0.564 0.259 0.029 -0.575 0.308 0.031 -0.576 0.307 0.030
First cigarette (≤ vs. > 5 min) 0.588 0.269 0.029 0.600 0.322 0.031 0.601 0.322 0.031
Missing model
Intercept -0.527 0.339 0.060 -0.626 0.432 0.074
Month 12 0.366 0.196 0.031
Month 18 0.072 0.176 0.341
Month 24 0.597 0.193 0.001
MDM -0.416 0.164 0.006
HDM -0.496 0.173 0.002
R t 1 3.240 0.191 < 0.0001 3.367 0.194 < 0.0001
Y t 1 0.013 0.319 0.484 0.067 0.287 0.408
Y t -0.428 0.532 0.211 -0.402 0.443 0.182
  1. § -2 log-L = 1944.4; AIC = 1974.4; BIC = 2062.0;
  2. † Overall treatment effects ( F 2 , 2536 = 3.65, p = 0.026); * time ( F 2 , 2536 = 4.69, p = 0.009); ‡ overall treatment ( F 2 , 2536 = 2.31, p = 0.099).