Table 2 Transition model estimates of abstinence and relapse to smoking

Transition model

From smoking to abstinent (abstinence model)

Intercept

-3.348

0.456

< 0.0001

-3.381

0.503

< 0.0001

-3.382

0.502

< 0.0001

MDM

0.056

0.166

0.737†

-0.026

0.193

0.446

-0.022

0.188

0.453

HDM

0.392

0.158

0.013†

0.322

0.177

0.034

0.329

0.171

0.027

Gender

0.504

0.137

0.0002

0.461

0.158

0.002

0.462

0.157

0.002

Cigarettes per day

-0.033

0.008

< 0.0001

-0.035

0.009

< 0.0001

-0.035

0.009

< 0.0001

Motivation to quit

0.144

0.040

0.0004

0.150

0.044

0.0003

0.150

0.044

0.0003

Confidence to quit

0.083

0.026

0.0014

0.083

0.028

0.002

0.083

0.028

0.002

Serious quit attempt

0.295

0.146

0.043

0.333

0.164

0.021

0.332

0.164

0.021

From abstinent to smoking (relapse model)

Intercept

-0.939

0.338

0.006

-0.979

0.376

0.005

-0.977

0.377

0.005

Month 18

0.763

0.318

0.016*

0.792

0.306

0.005

0.788

0.301

0.004

Month 24

-0.029

0.342

0.933*

-0.012

0.331

0.486

-0.009

0.332

0.489

MDM

-0.708

0.331

0.033‡

-0.624

0.372

0.047

-0.629

0.375

0.047

HDM

-0.409

0.305

0.181‡

-0.366

0.361

0.155

-0.371

0.363

0.153

Income (> 40 K vs. ≤ 40 K)

-0.564

0.259

0.029

-0.575

0.308

0.031

-0.576

0.307

0.030

First cigarette (≤ vs. > 5 min)

0.588

0.269

0.029

0.600

0.322

0.031

0.601

0.322

0.031

Missing model

Intercept

—

—

—

-0.527

0.339

0.060

-0.626

0.432

0.074

Month 12

—

—

—

—

—

—

0.366

0.196

0.031

Month 18

—

—

—

—

—

—

0.072

0.176

0.341

Month 24

—

—

—

—

—

—

0.597

0.193

0.001

MDM

—

—

—

—

—

—

-0.416

0.164

0.006

HDM

—

—

—

—

—

—

-0.496

0.173

0.002

$R_{t-1}$

—

—

—

3.240

0.191

< 0.0001

3.367

0.194

< 0.0001

$Y_{t-1}$

—

—

—

0.013

0.319

0.484

0.067

0.287

0.408

$Y_t$

—

—

—

-0.428

0.532

0.211

-0.402

0.443

0.182