Validating and updating a risk model for pneumonia – a case study

Table 1 Naïve and cross-validated comparison of the predictive performance of the five approaches, with 95% confidence intervals

Comparison	Statistic	Approach 1	Approach 2	Approach 3	Approach 4	Approach 5
Naïve	AUC*	0.633 (0.567-0.695)	0.633 (0.567-0.695)	0.759 (0.701-0.809)	0.757 (0.699-0.807)	0.765 (0.707-0.815)
	BS**	0.246 (0.219-0.272)	0.163 (0.142-0.183)	0.135 (0.116-0.154)	0.136 (0.116-0.155)	0.134 (0.114-0.154)
Cross validated	AUC	0.633 (0.567-0.695)	0.616 (0.550-0.679)	0.707 (0.644-0.763)	0.707 (0.644-0.763)	0.695 (0.632-0.752)
	BS	0.246 (0.219-0.272)	0.164 (0.143-0.185)	0.146 (0.126-0.167)	0.146 (0.126-0.166)	0.149 (0.128-0.171)

* AUC = Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, ** BS = Brier score.

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