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Table 2 Expected probabilities of surgical adaptation and stroke

From: From accuracy to patient outcome and cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests and biomarkers: an exemplary modelling study

 

Subgroup

 

Manual palpation strategy

 

Modified TEE strategy

 
 

Gender

Age

% atherosclerosis

EuroSCORE predictedmortality risk

Chance ofminor adaptation

Chance ofmajor adaptation

Risk of stroke

Life-years after surgery

Chance of minor adaptation

Chance of majoradaptation

Risk of stroke

Life-yearsafter surgery

       

non-fatal

fatal

   

non-fatal

fatal

 

1

Men

55 yr

10%

1.04%

3.03%

0.08%

1.01%

0.24%

23.06

9.43%

0.26%

0.84%

0.23%

`23.10

2

Men

55 yr

15%

1.08%

4.54%

0.13%

1.04%

0.24%

23.05

14.14%

0.39%

0.86%

0.23%

23.10

3

Women

55 yr

10%

1.41%

3.04%

0.08%

1.36%

0.32%

26.09

9.43%

0.26%

1.14%

0.31%

26.16

4

Women

55 yr

15%

1.46%

4.54%

0.13%

1.40%

0.33%

26.08

14.14%

0.39%

1.16%

0.31%

26.15

5

Men

65 yr

20%

1.61%

6.07%

0.17%

1.53%

0.36%

15.17

18.84%

0.52%

1.25%

0.33%

15.22

6

Men

65 yr

30%

1.71%

9.10%

0.25%

1.61%

0.38%

15.15

28.29%

0.78%

1.29%

0.33%

15.20

7

Women

65 yr

20%

2.14%

6.06%

0.17%

2.05%

0.48%

17.49

18.84%

0.52%

1.67%

0.44%

17.56

8

Women

65 yr

30%

2.28%

9.10%

0.25%

2.15%

0.50%

17.44

28.27%

0.78%

1.71%

0.44%

17.53

9

Men

75 yr

40%

3.18%

12.15%

0.34%

2.94%

0.69%

8.73

37.72%

1.04%

2.31%

0.59%

8.80

10

Men

75 yr

50%

3.36%

15.13%

0.42%

3.10%

0.72%

8.70

47.13%

1.31%

2.39%

0.60%

8.77

11

Women

75 yr

40%

4.13%

12.13%

0.34%

3.83%

0.90%

10.44

37.70%

1.04%

3.02%

0.77%

10.55

12

Women

75 yr

50%

4.34%

15.21%

0.42%

4.02%

0.94%

10.40

47.11%

1.31%

3.09%

0.78%

10.53

  1. The probabilities and life-years observed from the model. For both strategies the observed chance of adaptation of the surgical procedure is shown, the observed risk of stroke and the expected number of life-years following surgery. In addition, the EuroSCORE predicted mortality risk is given for each subgroup.