Table 6 Posterior medians and 95 per cent posterior credible intervals for the application of the models to simulated data, with low prevalence (π = 0.01) and large sample size (n = 20000)
True value | Informative priors for model | Informative priors for Se alone | Two-step informative priors for Se alone | Informative priors for Sp alone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
π = 0.01 | 0.0094 (0.0079,0.0120) | 0.0095 (0.0080,0.0119) | 0.0093 (0.0075,0.0118) | 0.0115 (0.0072,0.0590) |
Se1 = 0.6 | 0.6013 (0.5035,0.6944) | 0.5971 (0.5063,0.6936) | 0.5972 (0.5045,0.8695) | 0.4181 (0.0195,0.9603) |
Se2 = 0.7 | 0.6998 (0.6047,0.7949) | 0.6904 (0.6036,0.7940) | 0.6816 (0.6040,0.9019) | 0.3656 (0.0177,0.9636) |
Sp1 = 0.7 | 0.7000 (0.6941,0.7052) | 0.6998 (0.6947,0.7054) | 0.700 (0.6945,0.7054) | 0.6982 (0.6824,0.7057) |
Sp2 = 0.6 | 0.5996 (0.5951,0.6045) | 0.5999 (0.5948,0.6049) | 0.5998 (0.5948,0.6048) | 0.5964 (0.5762,0.6044) |
pD | 3.99 | 3.93 | 3.87 | -14.72 |
DIC | 53.84 | 53.74 | 53.63 | 35.09 |
π = 0.01 | 0.0099 (0.0089, 0.0110) | 0.0099 (0.0089, 0.0110) | 0.0099 (0.0090, 0.0111) | 0.0133 (0.0093, 0.0377) |
Se1 = 0.90 | 0.8996 (0.8526, 0.9479) | 0.9019 (0.8545, 0.9479) | 0.8940 (0.8528, 0.9678) | 0.5017 (0.0321, 0.9563) |
Se2 = 0.95 | 0.9445 (0.9020, 0.9876) | 0.9429 (0.9031, 0.9875) | 0.9341 (0.9015, 0.9759) | 0.5130 (0.0720, 0.9736) |
Sp1 = 0.95 | 0.9500 (0.9472, 0.9528) | 0.9499 (0.9469, 0.9528) | 0.9499 (0.9469, 0.9527) | 0.9480 (0.9404, 0.9522) |
Sp2 = 0.90 | 0.8998 (0.8969, 0.9027) | 0.8998 (0.8969, 0.9028) | 0.8997 (0.8967, 0.9027) | 0.8975 (0.8906, 0.9018) |
pD | 3.82 | 4.01 | 4.17 | -2.41 |
DIC | 65.59 | 65.95 | 66.28 | 59.47 |