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Table 1 Summary of the 15 articles included in the review

From: Developing and validating risk prediction models in an individual participant data meta-analysis

First author and year of publication First author location Research aims Baseline condition of participants Main outcome(s) of interest for prediction Approach to identify relevant studies Number of studies providing IPD (Number requested)
Pagliaro (1994)[29] Italy To identify predictors of short-term and sustained Alanine transaminase (ALT) normalization after interferon treatment in adult patients with hepatitis C Adult patients with transfusion-related or community-acquired Short term and sustained response (ALT normalization) Collaborative group 2 (NA)
Heffner (2000)[26] USA To determine the predictive accuracy of pH for identifying patients with malignant pleural effusions who will fail pleurodesis Patients with malignant pleural effusions Failure of pleurodesis Literature review 6 (12)
Raboud (2000)[30] Canada To determine the ability of intermediate plasma viral load (pVL) measurements to predict virologic outcome at 52 weeks of follow-up in clinical trials of antiretroviral therapy Patients within a particular range of CD4 cell counts, naive to antiretroviral therapy and not been previously diagnosed with AIDS Virologic outcome at 52 weeks of follow-up Collaborative group 3 (NA)
Terwee (2000)[34] Netherlands To develop a prognostic tool for patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer to distinguish between low or high probabilities of survival 3 to 9 months after diagnosis. Patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer Overall survival Literature review 8 (15)
Chau (2004)[24] United Kingdom To identify baseline patient- or tumour-related prognostic factors; and to assess whether pre-treatment quality of life predicts survival in patients with locally advanced or metastatic esophago-gastric cancer. Patients with histologically confirmed inoperable adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, or undifferentiated carcinoma of the oesophagus, esophago-gastric junction, or stomach Overall survival Collaborative group 3 (NA)
Horn (2005)[27] Netherlands Investigate if transcranial doppler monitoring for micro embolic signals, directly after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) identifies patients at risk of developing ischaemic complications. Carotid endarterectomy patients Cerebral ischaemic complications, defined as new neurological deficits within 1st week after CEA Literature review 7 (10)
Nieder (2005)[28] Germany Identifying the predictive value of biologically effective dose as function of the risk of myelopathy Patients with spinal cord retreatment Development of radiation myelopathy Literature review 8 (8)
Asia pacific group (2006)[23] Australia To investigate the generalisability of current definitions of the metabolic syndrome in Asia-Pacific populations, and assess the prognostic value of metabolic risk factors to discriminate fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) risk Healthy patients aged 30–75 Fatal CHD within 10 years Collaborative group 26 (NA)
Sylvester (2006)[33] Belgium To predict a superficial bladder cancer patient’s probability of recurrence and progression at one and five years Stage Ta, T1, and Tis bladder cancer patients who have undergone transurethral resection Time to first recurrence (disease-free interval) and time to progression to muscle invasive disease Collaborative group 7 (NA)
Noordzij (2007)[5] USA Early prediction of hypocalcaemia after thyroidectomy using parathyroid hormone Patients undergoing thyroidectomy Postoperative symptomatic hypocalcaemia Literature review 9 (15)
Rovers (2007)[31] Netherlands To determine the predictors of a prolonged course for children with acute otitis media (AOM) to discriminate between children with and without poor outcomes Children with AOM A prolonged course of AOM (pain and/or fever at 3 to 7 days) Literature review 6 (10)
Schaich (2007)[32] Germany To identify prognostic indicators in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) to provide a new prognostic model for risk stratification of AML patients AML patients Overall survival and relapse-free survival Collaborative group 8 (NA)
Fowkes (2008)[25] United Kingdom To determine if the ankle brachial index provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score and can improve risk prediction Participants of any age and sex derived from a general population Total and cardiovascular mortality Literature review 16 (20)
Steyerberg (2008)[18] Netherlands To develop prediction model for predicting unfavourable outcome according to the glasgow outcome scale (GOS) at 6 months after traumatic brain injury (TBI) Patients with moderate or severe TBI (with GOS > = 12) 6-months mortality and unfavourable outcomes defined by 6 months GOS Collaborative group 11 (NA)
Yap (2008)[35] United Kingdom To design a prognostic indicator using demographic information to select patients at risk of dying after myocardial infarction (MI) Patients at day 45 post-MI up to 2 years All-cause, arrhythmic and non-arrhythmic cardiac mortality within 2 years Not stated 4 (unknown)
  1. NA not applicable.