Bayesian designs of phase II oncology trials to select maximum effective dose assuming monotonic dose-response relationship

Guo, Beibei; Li, Yisheng

doi:10.1186/1471-2288-14-95

Table 1 Probability of concluding each hypothesis, average sample size and percentage of inconclusive trials (toxicity probability = 0.15)

From: Bayesian designs of phase II oncology trials to select maximum effective dose assuming monotonic dose-response relationship

Scenario	BHT-A	BHT-B	indep	BMA	BIT	Scenario	BHT-A	BHT-B	indep	BMA	BIT
0.1 & 0.1						0.1 & 0.3
P(H ₀)	0.936	0.935	0.894	0.94	0.935	P(H ₀)	0.258	0.295	0.277	0.396	0.355
P(H ₁)	0.041	0.049	0.057	0.037	0.039	P(H ₁)	0.604	0.645	0.676	0.435	0.501
P(H ₂)	0.022	0.014	0.003	0.018	0.016	P(H ₂)	0.085	0.029	0.02	0.03	0.051
P(H ₃)	0	0	0	0.003	0.01	P(H ₃)	0.045	0.024	0.012	0.129	0.088
P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.022	0.014	0.003	0.021	0.026	P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.13	0.053	0.033	0.159	0.139
avg ss	25.209	25.205	24.985	24.709	24.621	avg ss	26.862	26.96	25.328	26.711	25.606
% inconclusive	0.001	0.002	0.046	0.002	0	% inconclusive	0.008	0.007	0.014	0.01	0.005
0.2 & 0.2						0.1 & 0.4
P(H ₀)	0.434	0.524	0.401	0.519	0.496	P(H ₀)	0.092	0.092	0.077	0.171	0.136
P(H ₁)	0.133	0.183	0.225	0.106	0.115	P(H ₁)	0.765	0.84	0.877	0.553	0.723
P(H ₂)	0.386	0.246	0.104	0.267	0.255	P(H ₂)	0.06	0.029	0.016	0.017	0.018
P(H ₃)	0.036	0.029	0.025	0.088	0.129	P(H ₃)	0.081	0.037	0.027	0.247	0.123
P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.422	0.275	0.129	0.355	0.384	P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.141	0.066	0.042	0.264	0.141
avg ss	26.782	27.805	26.341	26.919	25.995	avg ss	25.871	25.68	24.84	27.431	25.754
% inconclusive	0.011	0.018	0.245	0.02	0.005	% inconclusive	0.002	0.002	0.004	0.012	0
0.1 & 0.2						0.3 & 0.4
P(H ₀)	0.577	0.619	0.609	0.701	0.674	P(H ₀)	0.03	0.031	0.024	0.04	0.04
P(H ₁)	0.326	0.336	0.341	0.203	0.241	P(H ₁)	0.152	0.249	0.274	0.043	0.109
P(H ₂)	0.072	0.034	0.013	0.047	0.036	P(H ₂)	0.425	0.383	0.319	0.379	0.283
P(H ₃)	0.01	0.002	0.004	0.045	0.048	P(H ₃)	0.392	0.336	0.324	0.535	0.565
P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.082	0.036	0.016	0.092	0.084	P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.817	0.719	0.643	0.914	0.848
avg ss	27.881	27.231	25.673	25.704	25.426	avg ss	25.244	25.52	25.291	25.116	25.191
% inconclusive	0.015	0.009	0.034	0.004	0.001	% inconclusive	0.001	0.001	0.059	0.003	0.003
0.3 & 0.3						0.3 & 0.5
P(H ₀)	0.085	0.108	0.086	0.124	0.108	P(H ₀)	0.006	0.004	0.005	0.006	0.011
P(H ₁)	0.104	0.192	0.211	0.061	0.081	P(H ₁)	0.179	0.295	0.293	0.041	0.133
P(H ₂)	0.618	0.557	0.355	0.503	0.455	P(H ₂)	0.233	0.2	0.193	0.236	0.162
P(H ₃)	0.187	0.141	0.141	0.3	0.353	P(H ₃)	0.581	0.501	0.496	0.714	0.689
P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.805	0.698	0.496	0.803	0.808	P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.814	0.701	0.689	0.95	0.851
avg ss	25.594	26.214	25.779	26.084	25.505	avg ss	24.74	25.202	25.063	24.832	25.374
% inconclusive	0.006	0.002	0.206	0.012	.003	% inconclusive	0.001	0	0.013	0.003	0.005
0.4 & 0.4						0.4 & 0.5
P(H ₀)	0.006	0.019	0.009	0.012	0.013	P(H ₀)	0	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.002
P(H ₁)	0.032	0.078	0.103	0.011	0.03	P(H ₁)	0.049	0.087	0.11	0.011	0.029
P(H ₂)	0.611	0.589	0.497	0.573	0.487	P(H ₂)	0.336	0.335	0.34	0.405	0.319
P(H ₃)	0.351	0.314	0.319	0.404	0.47	P(H ₃)	0.615	0.577	0.533	0.582	0.65
P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.962	0.903	0.816	0.977	0.957	P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.951	0.912	0.874	0.987	0.969
avg ss	24.326	24.755	24.742	24.436	24.458	avg ss	24.289	24.408	24.514	24.319	24.359
% inconclusive	0	0	0.072	0	0	% inconclusive	0	0	0.014	0	0
0.5 & 0.5						0.4 & 0.6
P(H ₀)	0	0	0	0	0	P(H ₀)	0.001	0.001	0	0.001	0
P(H ₁)	0.007	0.017	0.014	0.002	0.002	P(H ₁)	0.053	0.114	0.112	0.01	0.036
P(H ₂)	0.495	0.498	0.513	0.558	0.491	P(H ₂)	0.159	0.14	0.175	0.237	0.176
P(H ₃)	0.498	0.485	0.457	0.44	0.507	P(H ₃)	0.787	0.745	0.711	0.752	0.788
P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.993	0.983	0.97	0.998	0.998	P( $H_{2}^{⋆}$ )	0.946	0.885	0.886	0.989	0.964
avg ss	24.028	24.188	24.21	24.025	24.072	avg ss	24.193	24.491	24.412	24.177	24.341
% inconclusive	0	0	0.016	0	0	% inconclusive	0	0	0.002	0	0

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ISSN: 1471-2288

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