Bayesian designs of phase II oncology trials to select maximum effective dose assuming monotonic dose-response relationship

Guo, Beibei; Li, Yisheng

doi:10.1186/1471-2288-14-95

Table 2 Comparisons of BHT-A and Simon optimal two-stage designs

From: Bayesian designs of phase II oncology trials to select maximum effective dose assuming monotonic dose-response relationship

	P(H ₀)	P(H ₁)	P(H ₂)	P(H ₃)	$P (H_{2}^{⋆})$	SS	SS 1	SS 2	% incon
					0.1 & 0.1
BHT-A	0.978	0.014	0.003	0.000	0.003	34.5	17.1	17.4	0.005
Simon I	0.954	0.022	0.001	0.000	0.001	47.1	23.6	23.5	0.022
Simon II	0.954	0.022	0.001	0.000	0.001	47.1	23.6	23.5	0.022
Simon III	0.954	0.022	0.001	0.000	0.001	47.1	23.6	23.5	0.022
					0.2 & 0.2
BHT-A	0.408	0.142	0.408	0.003	0.411	68.6	33.3	35.3	0.039
Simon I	0.261	0.250	0.203	0.040	0.243	73.2	36.7	36.5	0.246
Simon II	0.261	0.250	0.174	0.069	0.243	73.2	36.7	36.5	0.246
Simon III	0.261	0.250	0.221	0.022	0.243	73.2	36.7	36.5	0.246
					0.1 & 0.2
BHT-A	0.623	0.343	0.027	0.000	0.027	53.6	23.6	30.0	0.007
Simon I	0.515	0.457	0.008	0.004	0.012	60.0	23.7	36.3	0.016
Simon II	0.515	0.457	0.008	0.004	0.012	60.0	23.7	36.3	0.016
Simon III	0.515	0.457	0.011	0.001	0.012	60.0	23.7	36.3	0.016
					0.3 & 0.3
BHT-A	0.039	0.056	0.773	0.132	0.905	86.7	42.8	43.9	0.000
Simon I	0.008	0.094	0.574	0.220	0.794	85.5	42.9	42.6	0.104
Simon II	0.008	0.094	0.506	0.288	0.794	85.5	42.9	42.6	0.104
Simon III	0.008	0.094	0.632	0.162	0.794	85.5	42.9	42.6	0.104
					0.4 & 0.4
BHT-A	0.002	0.008	0.706	0.284	0.990	89.7	44.7	44.9	0.000
Simon I	0.000	0.014	0.675	0.300	0.976	89.3	44.6	44.7	0.010
Simon II	0.000	0.014	0.588	0.387	0.976	89.3	44.6	44.7	0.010
Simon III	0.000	0.014	0.748	0.227	0.976	89.3	44.6	44.7	0.010
					0.5 & 0.5
BHT-A	0.000	0.001	0.659	0.340	0.999	90.0	45.0	45.0	0.000
Simon I	0.000	0.001	0.691	0.305	0.996	89.9	45.0	44.9	0.003
Simon II	0.000	0.001	0.626	0.370	0.996	89.9	45.0	44.9	0.003
Simon III	0.000	0.001	0.762	0.234	0.996	89.9	45.0	44.9	0.003
					0.1 & 0.3
BHT-A	0.150	0.811	0.030	0.006	0.036	64.9	23.9	41.0	0.003
Simon I	0.104	0.872	0.006	0.016	0.022	66.4	23.6	42.8	0.002
Simon II	0.104	0.872	0.002	0.020	0.022	66.4	23.6	42.8	0.002
Simon III	0.104	0.872	0.007	0.015	0.022	66.4	23.6	42.8	0.002
					0.1 & 0.4
BHT-A	0.021	0.949	0.007	0.023	0.030	65.2	20.9	44.4	0.000
Simon I	0.013	0.957	0.001	0.028	0.029	68.5	23.9	44.6	0.001
Simon II	0.013	0.957	0.000	0.028	0.029	68.5	23.9	44.6	0.001
Simon III	0.013	0.957	0.002	0.027	0.029	68.5	23.9	44.6	0.001
					0.3 & 0.4
BHT-A	0.006	0.097	0.358	0.539	0.897	87.5	42.7	44.8	0.000
Simon I	0.000	0.100	0.336	0.556	0.892	87.7	42.9	44.8	0.008
Simon II	0.000	0.100	0.261	0.631	0.892	87.7	42.9	44.8	0.008
Simon III	0.000	0.100	0.412	0.480	0.892	87.7	42.9	44.8	0.008
					0.3 & 0.5
BHT-A	0.000	0.116	0.071	0.813	0.884	87.3	42.3	45.0	0.000
Simon I	0.000	0.104	0.075	0.820	0.896	87.9	43.0	45.0	0.001
Simon II	0.000	0.104	0.050	0.846	0.896	87.9	43.0	45.0	0.001
Simon III	0.000	0.104	0.122	0.774	0.896	87.9	43.0	45.0	0.001
					0.4 & 0.5
BHT-A	0.000	0.010	0.289	0.701	0.990	89.7	44.7	45.0	0.000
Simon I	0.000	0.014	0.353	0.632	0.984	89.6	44.6	45.0	0.000
Simon II	0.000	0.014	0.280	0.705	0.984	89.6	44.6	45.0	0.000
Simon III	0.000	0.014	0.424	0.560	0.984	89.6	44.6	45.0	0.000
					0.4 & 0.6
BHT-A	0.000	0.021	0.051	0.928	0.979	89.4	44.4	45.0	0.000
Simon I	0.000	0.016	0.074	0.910	0.984	89.6	44.6	45.0	0.000
Simon II	0.000	0.016	0.051	0.934	0.984	89.6	44.6	45.0	0.000
Simon III	0.000	0.016	0.116	0.868	0.984	89.6	44.6	45.0	0.000

Note: A tuning parameter δ= 0.05, 0.03, or 0.07 was used in the Simon I, II, or III design, respectively.

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