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Table 1 Proportions of observed numbers of cases in 1993–97 covered by prediction intervals based on trends up to 1987, by site, sex, country and frequency*.

From: Empirical evaluation of prediction intervals for cancer incidence

  Number of intervals Coverage number (%) P-value for difference
Site    0.54
   Lip 5 2 (40)  
   Tongue, oral cavity and pharynx 10 5 (50)  
   Oesophagus 10 5 (50)  
   Stomach 10 5 (50)  
   Colon 10 7 (70)  
   Rectum 10 5 (50)  
   Pancreas 10 6 (60)  
   Larynx 5 3 (60)  
   Lung 10 4 (40)  
   Breast 5 2 (40)  
   Cervix uteri 5 2 (40)  
   Corpus uteri 5 2 (40)  
   Ovary 5 1 (20)  
   Prostate 5 2 (40)  
   Testis 5 4 (80)  
   Kidney 10 7 (70)  
   Urinary bladder 10 5 (50)  
   Melanoma of the skin 10 3 (30)  
   Thyroid 10 7 (70)  
   Non-Hodgkin lymphomas 10 4 (40)  
   Hodgkin disease 10 9 (90)  
   Multiple myeloma 10 4 (40)  
   Acute leukaemia 10 7 (70)  
   Other sites 10 3 (30)  
Sex    0.67
   Male 100 50 (50)  
   Female 100 54 (54)  
Country    <0.001
   Denmark 40 18 (45)  
   Finland 40 21 (53)  
   Iceland 40 35 (88)  
   Norway 40 20 (50)  
   Sweden 40 10 (25)  
Frequency    <0.001
   ≤ 70 per year 50 42 (84)  
   > 70 and ≤ 230 per year 50 26 (52)  
   > 230 and ≤ 555 per year 50 23 (46)  
   > 555 per year 50 13 (26)  
  1. *Average number of cases per year in the period 1983–87, grouped into four quartiles.