Bayesian estimation of a cancer population by capture-recapture with individual capture heterogeneity and small sample

Table 1 Estimates of incident breast cancer cases according to capture-recapture M _th models 3 capture episodes: Histopathological Registry, hospital Multidisciplinary Team Meeting, and Cancer Screening Program

Model	N*	Sd**	Posterior probabilities	Median	95%HPDI
M_t	790.4	0.5	100.0%	790.2	790.2-791.2
M_h	814.1	4.9	-	814.2	805.2-824.2
M_th	806.3	4.5	-	806.2	798.2-815.2
M _avg *******	790.6	0.63		790.2	790.2-792.2

*Estimated total number of cases **Standard Deviation ***Average estimate over all models following 25 000 iterations after discarding the initial 5 000 iterations.

ISSN: 1471-2288