Bayesian estimation of a cancer population by capture-recapture with individual capture heterogeneity and small sample

Table 4 Estimates of incident colorectal cancer cases according to capture-recapture M _th models 3 capture episodes: Histopathological Registry, hospital Multidisciplinary Team Meeting, and Cancer Screening Program

Model	N*	Sd**	Posterior probabilities	Median	95%HPDI
M_t	513.0	1.9	98.8%	514.6	511.6-519.6
M_h	532.0	4.6	1.0%	532.0	523.0-541.0
M_th	526.5	4.2	0.2%	526.0	519.0-535.0
M _avg *******	513.0	1.6		513.0	512.0-515.0

*Estimated total number of cases **Standard Deviation ***Average estimate over all models following 25 000 iterations after discarding the initial 5 000 iterations.

ISSN: 1471-2288