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Table 1 Subjects of the scenario projects

From: Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care – a scoping review

Year of publication Reference Institution Country Focus/title of the project Time horizon [approx. in years] Number of scenarios
Before 1995       
2 x 1988 Becker [81], also Schreuder [73] STGb Netherlands Aging in the Netherlands 10 3
1991, 1992 Bijl [69] also Bijl & Ketting [70] STGb Netherlands Dementia in the Netherlands 10 3
1994 Leufkens et al. [79] STGb Netherlands Future of Medicine 10 (15) 4
1988, 1989 Schaapveld & Cleton [74] also Schreuder [73] STGb Netherlands Cancer diseases in the Netherlands 15 >5
1988 Schreuder [73] STGb Netherlands Cardio-vascular diseases in the Netherlands 15 19
1989, 1997 Van Beeck et al.[68] also van Beeck & Mackenbach [67] STGb Netherlands Accident mortality and unintentional injuries in the Netherlands 15 9
1992 Bezold [61] IAFa US Leadership practices and organizational demands 10 5
1993 Venable et al. [53] University of Alabama US Local public health departments 5 2
1991 Zentner [76] Institute for Health Care Marketing US Health care organization (case example: future opportunities of American Transitional Care, Inc.) 10 3
1995-2004       
2001 Harmsen et al. [80] Aarhus School of Business Denmark Danish food industry 10 3
1999 Islei et al. [56] Various universities UK Pharmaceutical industry n.s.c 7
1997 Leufkens et al. [60] Department of Pharmaco-epidemiology & Pharmacotherapy Netherlands Clinical pharmacy n.s.c 3
2000 Ling & Hadridge [78] Cambridge Foresight UK Health care (15-) 20 2
2004 Neiner et al. [24] National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion US Public health (specifically to illustrate a health department’s desire to address chronic disease prevention and control) n.s.c 3
1998 Nielsen [72] Allen Memorial Hospital US Healthcare delivery 10 1
2001 Sager [59] Life Science Strategy Consulting US Biotechnology n.s.c 4
2003 Van Lente et al. [71] University of Utrecht Netherlands Biotechnology in Europe 10-15 4
Since 2005       
2005 Bezold [22] IAFa/Picker Institute US Patient-centered care 10 4
2005 Bezold & Beck [54] IAFa US Drug regulation 50 3
2011 Bierbooms et al. [13] Tilburg University Netherlands What types of residence should be organized for people with mental health problems? 5 4
2012 Buchan & Seccombe [23] Queen Margaret University UK Future supply of registered nursing staff, midwives and health visitors in the National Health Service (NHS) 10 8
2013 Carlsen et al. [84] Defense Research Agency Sweden Local adaptation to climate change (health aspects) 20 2
2 x 2005 Clark et al. [83] also Awasthi et al. [82] International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) International Academic medicine 20 5
2006 Eberl & Schnepp [55] The German Nurses Association Germany Family health nursing in Germany n.s.c 7 reduced to 5
2011 Enzmann et al. [62] Society of Chairs of Academic Radiology Departments (SCARD) US Field of radiology 10 3
2012 Gnatzy & Moser [18] EBS Business School, Deutschland India (Germany) Evolving health insurance industry in rural India 10 4
2014 Gregório et al. [16] WHO Collaborating Centre for Health Workforce Policy and Planning Portugal Community pharmacists 10 3
2013 Karger [29] Forschungs-zentrum Jülich Germany Personalized medicine on the example of dementia 20 4
2006 Ma & Seid [63] RAND cooperation US Disease management in the US 15 8
2009 Meristö [57] My wellbeing project Finland Life control especially related to health and personal wellbeing using ICT-tools n.s.c 3
2014 Nguyen et al. [30] Centre for Public Health and Ecosystem Research Vietnam Community development 10 2d
2005 Niewöhner et al. [65] Max-Delbrueck-Center for Molecular Medicine (MDC) Germany Relationship between biomedicine and economy in Germany 10 4
2012 Retèl et al. [64] Netherlands Cancer Institute Netherlands Developments in technology assessment (e.g. clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer) 15 10 reduced to 5
2012 Rhea & Bettles [77] Academy of Nutrition & Dietetics US Dietetics workforce supply and demand 10 4
2006 Rydström & Törnberg [58] Karolinska Institute Sweden External influences on cervical cancer incidence and mortality n.s.c 8
2011 Suk & Semenza [75] European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) Europe (Sweden) Future infectious disease threats to Europe 10 8
2014 Vollmar et al. [21] German Center for Neuro-degenerative Diseases (DZNE) Germany Health care for people with dementia in Germany 20 5
2008 Wiek et al. [66] Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) Switzerland Possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland 10 5
  1. a IAF Institute for Alternative Futures, b STG Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios, c n.s. not specified d“the outputs were limited to the best and worst case scenarios” [30]