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Table 1 Subjects of the scenario projects

From: Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care – a scoping review

Year of publication

Reference

Institution

Country

Focus/title of the project

Time horizon [approx. in years]

Number of scenarios

Before 1995

      

2 x 1988

Becker [81], also Schreuder [73]

STGb

Netherlands

Aging in the Netherlands

10

3

1991, 1992

Bijl [69] also Bijl & Ketting [70]

STGb

Netherlands

Dementia in the Netherlands

10

3

1994

Leufkens et al. [79]

STGb

Netherlands

Future of Medicine

10 (15)

4

1988, 1989

Schaapveld & Cleton [74] also Schreuder [73]

STGb

Netherlands

Cancer diseases in the Netherlands

15

>5

1988

Schreuder [73]

STGb

Netherlands

Cardio-vascular diseases in the Netherlands

15

19

1989, 1997

Van Beeck et al.[68] also van Beeck & Mackenbach [67]

STGb

Netherlands

Accident mortality and unintentional injuries in the Netherlands

15

9

1992

Bezold [61]

IAFa

US

Leadership practices and organizational demands

10

5

1993

Venable et al. [53]

University of Alabama

US

Local public health departments

5

2

1991

Zentner [76]

Institute for Health Care Marketing

US

Health care organization (case example: future opportunities of American Transitional Care, Inc.)

10

3

1995-2004

      

2001

Harmsen et al. [80]

Aarhus School of Business

Denmark

Danish food industry

10

3

1999

Islei et al. [56]

Various universities

UK

Pharmaceutical industry

n.s.c

7

1997

Leufkens et al. [60]

Department of Pharmaco-epidemiology & Pharmacotherapy

Netherlands

Clinical pharmacy

n.s.c

3

2000

Ling & Hadridge [78]

Cambridge Foresight

UK

Health care

(15-) 20

2

2004

Neiner et al. [24]

National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

US

Public health (specifically to illustrate a health department’s desire to address chronic disease prevention and control)

n.s.c

3

1998

Nielsen [72]

Allen Memorial Hospital

US

Healthcare delivery

10

1

2001

Sager [59]

Life Science Strategy Consulting

US

Biotechnology

n.s.c

4

2003

Van Lente et al. [71]

University of Utrecht

Netherlands

Biotechnology in Europe

10-15

4

Since 2005

      

2005

Bezold [22]

IAFa/Picker Institute

US

Patient-centered care

10

4

2005

Bezold & Beck [54]

IAFa

US

Drug regulation

50

3

2011

Bierbooms et al. [13]

Tilburg University

Netherlands

What types of residence should be organized for people with mental health problems?

5

4

2012

Buchan & Seccombe [23]

Queen Margaret University

UK

Future supply of registered nursing staff, midwives and health visitors in the National Health Service (NHS)

10

8

2013

Carlsen et al. [84]

Defense Research Agency

Sweden

Local adaptation to climate change (health aspects)

20

2

2 x 2005

Clark et al. [83] also Awasthi et al. [82]

International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM)

International

Academic medicine

20

5

2006

Eberl & Schnepp [55]

The German Nurses Association

Germany

Family health nursing in Germany

n.s.c

7 reduced to 5

2011

Enzmann et al. [62]

Society of Chairs of Academic Radiology Departments (SCARD)

US

Field of radiology

10

3

2012

Gnatzy & Moser [18]

EBS Business School, Deutschland

India (Germany)

Evolving health insurance industry in rural India

10

4

2014

Gregório et al. [16]

WHO Collaborating Centre for Health Workforce Policy and Planning

Portugal

Community pharmacists

10

3

2013

Karger [29]

Forschungs-zentrum Jülich

Germany

Personalized medicine on the example of dementia

20

4

2006

Ma & Seid [63]

RAND cooperation

US

Disease management in the US

15

8

2009

Meristö [57]

My wellbeing project

Finland

Life control especially related to health and personal wellbeing using ICT-tools

n.s.c

3

2014

Nguyen et al. [30]

Centre for Public Health and Ecosystem Research

Vietnam

Community development

10

2d

2005

Niewöhner et al. [65]

Max-Delbrueck-Center for Molecular Medicine (MDC)

Germany

Relationship between biomedicine and economy in Germany

10

4

2012

Retèl et al. [64]

Netherlands Cancer Institute

Netherlands

Developments in technology assessment (e.g. clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer)

15

10 reduced to 5

2012

Rhea & Bettles [77]

Academy of Nutrition & Dietetics

US

Dietetics workforce supply and demand

10

4

2006

Rydström & Törnberg [58]

Karolinska Institute

Sweden

External influences on cervical cancer incidence and mortality

n.s.c

8

2011

Suk & Semenza [75]

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

Europe (Sweden)

Future infectious disease threats to Europe

10

8

2014

Vollmar et al. [21]

German Center for Neuro-degenerative Diseases (DZNE)

Germany

Health care for people with dementia in Germany

20

5

2008

Wiek et al. [66]

Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED)

Switzerland

Possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland

10

5

  1. a IAF Institute for Alternative Futures, b STG Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios, c n.s. not specified d“the outputs were limited to the best and worst case scenarios” [30]