Early diagnosis of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia based on trajectory classification with compartment modeling

Table 1 Statistical criteria and diagnostic accuracy of the fitted models

Variance^a	G	Model^b	Log- likelihood	BIC	AIC	ICL	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	Classification rate (%)^c	Group sizes^d
σ²	4	A	−4861	9836	9751	9656	36.1	96.8	65.9	89.8	87.8	110-460-398-85
σ²	4	A × t	−4932	9997	9892	9794	43.9	94.9	59.7	90.7	87.4	112-439-388-114
σ²	3	A	−5105	10300	10233	10174	55.5	91.3	52.4	92.2	86.0	256-633-164
σ²	3	A × t	−5117	10324	10257	10196	56.8	90.3	50.3	92.4	85.4	245-633-175
σ²	2	A	−5517	11098	11050	11026	76.8	73.7	33.5	94.8	74.2	698-355
σ²	2	A × t	−5509	11084	11035	11011	74.2	77.7	36.5	94.6	77.2	738-315
σ_g ²	4	A	−4552	9241	9138	8886	65.2	86.5	45.5	93.5	83.4	153-324-354-222
σ_g ²	4	A × t	−4699	9535	9432	9236	61.3	79.0	33.5	92.2	76.4	329-379-61-329
σ_g ²	3	A	−4924	9954	9875	9749	74.2	79.1	38.0	94.7	78.3	292-459-303
σ_g ²	3	A × t	−4923	9951	9872	9748	71.6	80.4	38.7	94.3	79.1	298-468-287
σ_g ²	2	A	−5519	11110	11055	11032	82.6	64.7	28.8	95.6	67.3	608-445
σ_g ²	2	A × t	−5511	11095	11040	11020	76.8	73.9	33.7	94.9	74.4	700-353
σ²	4	Non-biological	−4830	9823	9701	9632	41.9	95.9	63.7	90.5	87.9	111-445-395-102

^a σ for models with constant residual variances and σ _g for models with different residual variance between groups.^bType of residual hCG production: constant (r(t) = A), proportional to time (r(t) = A × t), and non-biological model. ^cPercentage of well-classified subjects. ^dNumber of subjects per group from the lowest to the highest hCG trajectory group

ISSN: 1471-2288