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Table 1 MDS results – Sensitivity analyses

From: Evaluation of a multi-arm multi-stage Bayesian design for phase II drug selection trials – an example in hemato-oncology

Prior ESS Posterior mean Decision criteria
Arm A B C A B C A B C B C B C
        Rule 1 Rule 1 Rule 1 Rule 2 Rule 2 Rule 3 Rule 3
MLE 0 0 0 0.3750 0.3250 0.4000        
Non informative 1 1 1 0.3780 0.3293 0.4024 0.1505 0.3576 0.0863 0.3198 0.5906 0.0286 0.1197
2 2 2 0.3810 0.3333 0.4048 0.1384 0.3346 0.0789 0.3223 0.5894 0.0281 0.1161
Sk eptical 10 1 1 0.3600 0.3244 0.3976 0.1900 0.3833 0.0971 0.3575 0.6437 0.0310 0.1340
10 5 1 0.3600 0.3222 0.3976 0.1900 0.3885 0.0971 0.3465 0.6437 0.0262 0.1340
10 1 5 0.3600 0.3244 0.3889 0.1900 0.3833 0.1074 0.3575 0.6148 0.0310 0.1099
Enthusiastic 10 1 1 0.3600 0.3222 0.3889 0.1900 0.3885 0.1074 0.3465 0.6148 0.0262 0.1099
10 5 1 0.3600 0.3280 0.4012 0.1900 0.3640 0.0889 0.3716 0.6570 0.0338 0.1422
10 1 5 0.3600 0.3389 0.4012 0.1900 0.2996 0.0889 0.4128 0.6570 0.0393 0.1422
  1. The first line refers to the maximum likelihood estimate of response probability of each treatment arm, while the other lines refer to Bayes posterior estimates with computed decision criteria based on different combinations of the priors
  2. MLE maximum likelihood estimate, ESS effective sample size, Decision criteria use p0=0.3, Δ=0, δ*=0.15: p0 refers to the minimum required treatment response rate of the first rule (Eq. 1); Δ to the targeted difference of the second rule (Eq. 2), and δ* to the sufficient treatment response rate of the third rule (Eq. 3)