Evaluation of a multi-arm multi-stage Bayesian design for phase II drug selection trials – an example in hemato-oncology

Jacob, Louis; Uvarova, Maria; Boulet, Sandrine; Begaj, Inva; Chevret, Sylvie

doi:10.1186/s12874-016-0166-7

Table 5 Simulation results evaluating Rule 3 when the threshold probability is set at 0.90

From: Evaluation of a multi-arm multi-stage Bayesian design for phase II drug selection trials – an example in hemato-oncology

Sample size	True benefit		Posterior mean estimate biases			Average sample sizes			% Early stopping
	dB	dC	p_A	p_B	p_C	A	B	C	B	C
40	−0.15	0.00	0.0092	0.0182	0.0254	39.9621	39.8136	37.9895	0.54 %	6.45 %
	−0.05	0.00	0.0088	0.0237	0.0272	39.8054	38.8511	37.8795	3.56 %	6.90 %
	0.00	0.00	0.0085	0.0254	0.0270	39.6095	37.9435	37.9783	6.69 %	6.53 %
	0.05	0.00	0.0089	0.0324	0.0250	39.5103	36.5882	38.0288	11.66 %	6.37 %
	0.10	0.00	0.0062	0.0384	0.0264	39.2740	34.3440	38.0311	19.85 %	6.37 %
	0.15	0.00	0.0056	0.0416	0.0254	39.0452	31.9203	38.0610	29.96 %	6.22 %
	0.20	0.00	0.0049	0.0451	0.0256	38.8153	28.6999	37.9511	42.93 %	6.61 %
	0.25	0.00	0.0051	0.0423	0.0254	38.5798	25.0534	37.9815	57.41 %	6.60 %
	0.30	0.00	0.0052	0.0369	0.0250	38.4489	21.2180	38.0583	71.85 %	6.33 %
	0.35	0.00	0.0037	0.0261	0.0270	38.2338	17.3342	37.9999	83.87 %	6.49 %
	0.40	0.00	0.0039	0.0098	0.0265	38.0706	14.1594	37.8966	92.38 %	6.79 %
	0.45	0.00	0.0035	−0.0115	0.0266	38.0738	11.1299	37.9628	97.64 %	6.54 %
100	−0.15	0.00	0.0029	0.0093	0.0226	99.8389	99.4843	94.1617	0.55 %	6.49 %
	−0.05	0.00	0.0031	0.0169	0.0237	99.3256	96.7377	93.7367	3.55 %	6.94 %
	0.00	0.00	0.0020	0.0233	0.0222	99.0139	93.7839	94.1902	6.91 %	6.48 %
	0.05	0.00	0.0013	0.0322	0.0224	98.3338	89.3276	94.1794	12.36 %	6.48 %
	0.10	0.00	0.0012	0.0405	0.0227	97.6239	82.2664	94.1533	21.90 %	6.50 %
	0.15	0.00	−0.0009	0.0509	0.0234	96.5788	71.2643	94.0376	37.94 %	6.60 %
	0.20	0.00	−0.0025	0.0578	0.0235	95.7497	56.8519	94.0065	59.48 %	6.66 %
	0.25	0.00	−0.0025	0.0577	0.0230	95.1262	41.9689	93.9749	79.99 %	6.71 %
	0.30	0.00	−0.0030	0.0473	0.0235	94.5634	29.7273	93.9678	92.99 %	6.71 %
	0.40	0.00	−0.0025	0.0119	0.0239	94.0066	15.1126	93.8206	99.84 %	6.79 %
	0.45	0.00	−0.0027	−0.0110	0.0227	94.2995	11.7989	94.1851	100.00 %	6.48 %

p_A, p_B and p_C refer to the posterior means of response probability in arms A, B and C, respectively; δ*=0.15. Bold data refer to the null hypothesis of absence of any treatment difference (dB=dC=0), or to the alternative hypothesis of an expected true 0.15 benefit of treatment B (dB=0.15)

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