Evaluation of a multi-arm multi-stage Bayesian design for phase II drug selection trials – an example in hemato-oncology

Jacob, Louis; Uvarova, Maria; Boulet, Sandrine; Begaj, Inva; Chevret, Sylvie

doi:10.1186/s12874-016-0166-7

Table 7 Simulation results evaluating Rule 3 when the threshold probability is set at 0.80

From: Evaluation of a multi-arm multi-stage Bayesian design for phase II drug selection trials – an example in hemato-oncology

Sample size	True benefit		Posterior mean estimate biases			Enrolled sample sizes			% Early stopping
	dB	dC	pA	pB	pC	A	B	C	B	C
40	−0.15	0.00	0.0083	0.0320	0.0562	39.5748	38.6963	33.8148	3.64 %	18.64 %
	−0.05	0.00	0.0063	0.0495	0.0568	38.7270	35.8578	33.7310	12.09 %	18.95 %
	0.00	0.00	0.0049	0.0555	0.0581	38.1052	33.9250	33.5867	18.38 %	19.20 %
	0.05	0.00	0.0016	0.0632	0.0563	37.5141	31.3987	33.8662	26.92 %	18.51 %
	0.10	0.00	−0.0008	0.0691	0.0570	36.8763	28.0621	33.8537	38.65 %	18.55 %
	0.15	0.00	0.0001	0.0720	0.0578	35.9576	24.3662	33.6137	51.87 %	19.22 %
	0.20	0.00	−0.0002	0.0673	0.0561	35.5246	20.7723	33.8744	64.82 %	18.40 %
	0.25	0.00	−0.0017	0.0575	0.0568	34.9601	16.9213	33.7372	77.56 %	18.91 %
	0.30	0.00	−0.0043	0.0409	0.0575	34.3862	13.5320	33.6114	87.33 %	19.19 %
	0.35	0.00	−0.0016	0.0196	0.0560	34.5481	10.7458	34.0309	94.31 %	17.94 %
	0.40	0.00	−0.0033	−0.0069	0.0547	34.2171	8.5161	33.9205	97.80 %	18.43 %
	0.45	0.00	−0.0023	−0.0372	0.0542	34.1941	6.8534	33.9756	99.23 %	18.33 %
100	−0.05	0.00	0.0032	0.0229	0.0559	98.8583	96.4597	82.6701	3.69 %	18.83 %
	−0.05	0.00	−0.0006	0.0433	0.0563	96.1819	89.1834	82.5699	11.51 %	18.92 %
	0.00	0.00	−0.0038	0.0577	0.0571	94.3563	82.2688	82.2694	19.21 %	19.14 %
	0.05	0.00	−0.0060	0.0689	0.0570	92.3215	73.7509	82.5095	29.51 %	19.02 %
	0.10	0.00	−0.0075	0.0778	0.0567	89.5994	63.0008	82.5545	43.27 %	18.97 %
	0.15	0.00	−0.0088	0.0822	0.0574	87.6736	49.5431	82.5278	61.69 %	18.88 %
	0.20	0.00	−0.0102	0.0771	0.0530	86.2653	37.2856	83.2202	77.99 %	18.15 %
	0.25	0.00	−0.0113	0.0636	0.0558	84.2998	25.2895	82.5265	91.74 %	19.02 %
	0.30	0.00	−0.0112	0.0448	0.0576	83.4348	17.4124	82.3130	97.39 %	19.14 %
	0.35	0.00	−0.0114	0.0204	0.0558	83.0775	11.9089	82.5449	99.58 %	18.89 %
	0.40	0.00	−0.0102	−0.0073	0.0552	83.3131	9.0623	82.9624	99.95 %	18.47 %
	0.45	0.00	−0.0111	−0.0375	0.0585	82.5830	6.9659	82.3697	100.00 %	19.09 %

p_A, p_B and p_C refer to the posterior means of response probability in arms A, B and C, respectively; δ*=0.15. Bold data refer to the null hypothesis of absence of any treatment difference (dB=dC=0), or to the alternative hypothesis of an expected true 0.15 benefit of treatment B (dB=0.15)

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ISSN: 1471-2288

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