Fig. 8
Predictions for hypothetical patients made from fitted model. Plots of the 90 % range of CD4 counts predicted by Model4 for a population of patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) either within 6 months (a–c) or more than 1 year (d–f) from seroconversion, with ‘true’ CD4 counts at treatment initiation of: a, d 200, b, e 350 and c, f 500 cells/ μL. The predicted ranges include measurement error (alongside the stochastic process component and variance in the subject-specific long-term maximum), explaining the variance present at time zero. The ranges shown have been back-transformed from the model predictions generated on the square-root scale