Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

Table 5 Cohort mortality for Canadian population with and without heart disease in 2001^a

Age group	2- year mortality rate after MI (a)	2-year mortality rate after angina (b)	2-year mortality rate after heart failure (c)	Survival fraction 2 years after IHD (d)	1-year mortality for people without IHD (e)
Men
15–34	0.043	0.012	0.180	0.952	0.001
35–49	0.087	0.018	0.180	0.915	0.001
50–54	0.121	0.024	0.190	0.908	0.002
55–59	0.135	0.032	0.300	0.826	0.002
60–64	0.240	0.032	0.300	0.838	0.004
65-69	0.261	0.058	0.470	0.729	0.006
70–74	0.391	0.058	0.470	0.718	0.010
75–79	0.420	0.130	0.640	0.545	0.015
80+	0.619	0.130	0.640	0.553	0.025
Women
15–34	0.086	0.014	0.220	0.957	0.001
35–49	0.174	0.120	0.174	0.924	0.001
50–54	0.180	0.020	0.110	0.858	0.001
55–59	0.199	0.028	0.320	0.829	0.002
60–64	0.275	0.028	0.320	0.775	0.003
65–69	0.293	0.050	0.430	0.756	0.004
70–74	0.425	0.050	0.430	0.743	0.006
75–79	0.442	0.108	0.560	0.649	0.010
80+	0.576	0.108	0.560	0.636	0.016

^ad = 1- (weight_a*a + weight_b*b + weight_c*c). weight_a = proportion of MI to all heart disease in CCHS 2001 wave; weight_b = proportion of angina to all heart disease in CCHS 2001 wave; weight_c = proportion of heart failure to all heart disease in CCHS 2001 wave. CCHS: Canadian Community Health Survey

ISSN: 1471-2288