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Table 2 Estimation performances at different levels of reproduction numbers and travel rates

From: A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic

  

Low travel volumes

High travel volumes

n

Mean

SD

SE

95% CrI

Mean

SD

SE

95% CrI

R 0  = 1.2

4

1.21

0.02

0.01

(1.18, 1.25)

1.21

0.02

0.02

(1.17, 1.25)

8

1.21

0.01

0.01

(1.18, 1.23)

1.21

0.01

0.01

(1.18, 1.23)

12

1.21

0.01

0.01

(1.19, 1.22)

1.20

0.01

0.01

(1.18, 1.22)

16

1.21

0.01

0.01

(1.19, 1.22)

1.20

0.01

0.01

(1.19, 1.22)

20

1.21

0.01

0.01

(1.19, 1.22)

1.20

0.01

0.01

(1.19, 1.22)

R 0  = 1.7

4

1.72

0.05

0.05

(1.64, 1.82)

1.72

0.06

0.05

(1.63, 1.85)

8

1.71

0.04

0.03

(1.65, 1.79)

1.71

0.04

0.04

(1.64, 1.80)

12

1.71

0.03

0.03

(1.66, 1.76)

1.71

0.03

0.03

(1.65, 1.78)

16

1.71

0.02

0.02

(1.66, 1.75)

1.71

0.03

0.03

(1.66, 1.77)

20

1.70

0.02

0.02

(1.67, 1.74)

1.70

0.02

0.02

(1.66, 1.75)

R 0  = 2.2

4

2.22

0.09

0.08

(2.08, 2.43)

2.23

0.11

0.09

(2.04, 2.50)

8

2.21

0.06

0.06

(2.11, 2.35)

2.21

0.07

0.07

(2.08, 2.38)

12

2.21

0.05

0.05

(2.11, 2.32)

2.21

0.05

0.05

(2.12, 2.32)

16

2.21

0.04

0.04

(2.13, 2.29)

2.21

0.05

0.05

(2.12, 2.31)

20

2.20

0.04

0.04

(2.14, 2.28)

2.21

0.04

0.04

(2.13, 2.31)

  1. n numbers of countries having imported cases; SD Standard deviation of estimates in a simulation, SE Mean standard error of estimates in a simulation, 95% CrI 95% non-parametric credible intervals