From: Implementing the EffTox dose-finding design in the Matchpoint trial
Scenario | Â | Dose 1 | Dose 2 | Dose 3 | Dose 4 | Stop |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Pr(Eff) | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.60 |  |
1: | Pr(Tox) | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.30 | Â |
monotonic, | Utility | -0.33 | -0.17 | 0.16 | 0.22 | Â |
dose 4 | ESS=0.5 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 0.01 |
optimal | ESS=1.3 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 0.22 | 0.76 | <0.01 |
 | ESS=1.5 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 0.22 | 0.77 | <0.01 |
 | Pr(Eff) | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.79 |  |
2: | Pr(Tox) | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.55 | 0.60 | Â |
monotonic, | Utility | -0.01 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.08 | Â |
dose 2 | ESS=0.5 | 0.06 | 0.59 | 0.32 | <0.01 | 0.03 |
optimal | ESS=1.3 | 0.03 | 0.60 | 0.35 | <0.01 | 0.01 |
 | ESS=1.5 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 0.39 | <0.01 | 0.01 |
 | Pr(Eff) | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.60 |  |
3: | Pr(Tox) | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.42 | Â |
eff. plateau, | Utility | -0.26 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.12 | Â |
dose 3 | ESS=0.5 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
optimal | ESS=1.3 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.73 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
 | ESS=1.5 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.73 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
 | Pr(Eff) | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.80 |  |
4: | Pr(Tox) | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | Â |
tox. plateau, | Utility | 0.12 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 0.57 | Â |
dose 4 | ESS=0.5 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.61 | 0.34 | <0.01 |
optimal | ESS=1.3 | <0.01 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 0.50 | <0.01 |
 | ESS=1.5 | <0.01 | 0.01 | 0.47 | 0.51 | <0.01 |
 | Pr(Eff) | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.25 |  |
 | Pr(Tox) | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.14 |  |
5: | Utility | -0.58 | -0.54 | -0.34 | -0.26 | Â |
all doses | ESS=0.5 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.37 | 0.53 |
inactive | ESS=1.3 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.51 |
 | ESS=1.5 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.36 | 0.48 |
 | Pr(Eff) | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.25 |  |
6: | Pr(Tox) | 0.60 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.80 | Â |
all doses | Utility | -0.78 | -0.78 | -0.76 | -0.67 | Â |
too toxic | ESS=0.5 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.88 |
and inactive | ESS=1.3 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.91 |
 | ESS=1.5 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.93 |