Table 2 Probability of success and failures at interim and final analysis at fixed and adaptive design scenarios
True Dose Response | Design Scenarios | Models Comparisons | Early success | Early failure | Final success | Final failure | Total Success | Mean subjects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Placebo like flat curve | Fixed Design (S1) | Bayesian Emax | – | – | 0.06 | 0.94 | 0.06 | 64 |
Bayesian NDLM | – | – | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 64 | ||
No Adaptive design (S2) | Bayesian Emax | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 51 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.78 | 0.18 | 58 | ||
Half Adaptive design (S3) | Bayesian Emax | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.73 | 0.04 | 61 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.88 | 0.12 | 64 | ||
Adaptive (S4) | Bayesian Emax | 0.03 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 0.07 | 55 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.86 | 0.13 | 64 | ||
Emax curve | Fixed Design (S1) | Bayesian Emax | – | – | 0.98 | 0.02 | 0.98 | 64 |
Bayesian NDLM | – | – | 0.98 | 0.02 | 0.98 | 64 | ||
No Adaptive design (S2) | Bayesian Emax | 0.74 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.93 | 38 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.82 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.91 | 37 | ||
Half Adaptive design (S3) | Bayesian Emax | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 0.99 | 55 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.97 | 57 | ||
Adaptive (S4) | Bayesian Emax | 0.80 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.95 | 42 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.96 | 56 | ||
Log Linear Curve | Fixed Design (S1) | Bayesian Emax | – | – | 0.96 | 0.04 | 0.96 | 64 |
Bayesian NDLM | – | – | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0.95 | 64 | ||
No Adaptive design (S2) | Bayesian Emax | 0.64 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.88 | 40 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.89 | 40 | ||
Half Adaptive design (S3) | Bayesian Emax | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 0.98 | 57 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.08 | 0.92 | 58 | ||
Adaptive (S4) | Bayesian Emax | 0.70 | 0.03 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.94 | 45 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.06 | 0.94 | 56 | ||
U-Shaped curve | Fixed Design (S1) | Bayesian Emax | – | – | 0.26 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 64 |
Bayesian NDLM | – | – | 0.92 | 0.08 | 0.92 | 64 | ||
No Adaptive design (S2) | Bayesian Emax | 0.10 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.50 | 0.24 | 47 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.63 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.80 | 43 | ||
Half Adaptive design (S3) | Bayesian Emax | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.75 | 0.16 | 62 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.12 | 0.88 | 59 | ||
Adaptive (S4) | Bayesian Emax | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 54 | |
Bayesian NDLM | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 0.86 | 58 |