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Table 2 Probability of success and failures at interim and final analysis at fixed and adaptive design scenarios

From: Design considerations and analysis planning of a phase 2a proof of concept study in rheumatoid arthritis in the presence of possible non-monotonicity

True Dose Response Design Scenarios Models Comparisons Early success Early failure Final success Final failure Total Success Mean subjects
Placebo like flat curve Fixed Design (S1) Bayesian Emax 0.06 0.94 0.06 64
Bayesian NDLM 0.17 0.83 0.17 64
No Adaptive design (S2) Bayesian Emax 0.00 0.39 0.04 0.57 0.04 51
Bayesian NDLM 0.03 0.03 0.16 0.78 0.18 58
Half Adaptive design (S3) Bayesian Emax 0.00 0.23 0.04 0.73 0.04 61
Bayesian NDLM 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.88 0.12 64
Adaptive (S4) Bayesian Emax 0.03 0.39 0.04 0.54 0.07 55
Bayesian NDLM 0.01 0.01 0.12 0.86 0.13 64
Emax curve Fixed Design (S1) Bayesian Emax 0.98 0.02 0.98 64
Bayesian NDLM 0.98 0.02 0.98 64
No Adaptive design (S2) Bayesian Emax 0.74 0.03 0.19 0.04 0.93 38
Bayesian NDLM 0.82 0.01 0.09 0.08 0.91 37
Half Adaptive design (S3) Bayesian Emax 0.74 0.00 0.26 0.01 0.99 55
Bayesian NDLM 0.53 0.00 0.44 0.03 0.97 57
Adaptive (S4) Bayesian Emax 0.80 0.03 0.15 0.02 0.95 42
Bayesian NDLM 0.55 0.00 0.41 0.04 0.96 56
Log Linear Curve Fixed Design (S1) Bayesian Emax 0.96 0.04 0.96 64
Bayesian NDLM 0.95 0.05 0.95 64
No Adaptive design (S2) Bayesian Emax 0.64 0.05 0.24 0.08 0.88 40
Bayesian NDLM 0.74 0.00 0.15 0.11 0.89 40
Half Adaptive design (S3) Bayesian Emax 0.58 0.00 0.40 0.02 0.98 57
Bayesian NDLM 0.45 0.00 0.47 0.08 0.92 58
Adaptive (S4) Bayesian Emax 0.70 0.03 0.24 0.03 0.94 45
Bayesian NDLM 0.51 0.00 0.43 0.06 0.94 56
U-Shaped curve Fixed Design (S1) Bayesian Emax 0.26 0.74 0.26 64
Bayesian NDLM 0.92 0.08 0.92 64
No Adaptive design (S2) Bayesian Emax 0.10 0.26 0.14 0.50 0.24 47
Bayesian NDLM 0.63 0.01 0.17 0.18 0.80 43
Half Adaptive design (S3) Bayesian Emax 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.75 0.16 62
Bayesian NDLM 0.41 0.00 0.47 0.12 0.88 59
Adaptive (S4) Bayesian Emax 0.14 0.24 0.10 0.52 0.24 54
Bayesian NDLM 0.42 0.00 0.44 0.14 0.86 58