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Table 2 Hazard Ratios for transitions in the multi-state model

From: Advantages of a multi-state approach in surgical research: how intermediate events and risk factor profile affect the prognosis of a patient with locally advanced rectal cancer

Transition   From begin of CTx to ED From begin of CTx to both LR and DM or DM only From 6 < CTx < 12 to LD From CTx = 12 to both LR and DM or DM only
A
Risk factor Categories HR (95%CI) p HR (95%CI) p HR (95%CI) p HR (95%CI) p
Age (per 10 yrs)   0.91 (0.69; 1.2) 0.512 1.06 (0.69; 1.62) 0.794 1.05 (0.81; 1.36) 0.709 1.03 (0.79; 1.34) 0.821
Gender male 1   1   1   1  
female 1.47 (0.9; 2.4) 0.125 1.72 (0.8; 3.71) 0.167 0.69 (0.43; 1.13) 0.142 0.81 (0.5; 1.31) 0.396
Grading 1 + 2 1   1   1   1  
3 + 4 0.78 (0.42; 1.45) 0.431 2.03 (0.9; 4.58) 0.089 1.28 (0.78; 2.08) 0.331 0.86 (0.5; 1.48) 0.59
UICC Stage II 1   1   1   1  
IIIa 1.42 (0.65; 3.1) 0.381 0.49 (0.06; 4.16) 0.516 0.74 (0.3; 1.79) 0.499 1.31 (0.55; 3.15) 0.544
IIIb 1.06 (0.57; 1.98) 0.846 1.05 (0.33; 3.3) 0.94 1.14 (0.66; 1.98) 0.643 2.38 (1.31; 4.35) 0.005 *
IIIc 1.01 (0.52; 1.98) 0.969 2.16 (0.78; 6.03) 0.14 1.56 (0.9; 2.7) 0.116 3.37 (1.82; 6.23) < 0.001 *
BMI (per kg/m2)   0.99 (0.93; 1.06) 0.831 0.92 (0.83; 1.02) 0.116 0.98 (0.92; 1.04) 0.467 1 (0.94; 1.06) 0.982
Adjuvant CTx 5-FU 1   1   1   1  
5-FU + FA 1.01 (0.54; 1.88) 0.982 0.72 (0.31; 1.69) 0.452 1.12 (0.68; 1.86) 0.661 0.92 (0.55; 1.53) 0.747
5FU + IFN- α 1.66 (0.92; 3.02) 0.094 0.6 (0.21; 1.71) 0.34 1.38 (0.8; 2.4) 0.25 0.96 (0.54; 1.72) 0.886
Operation type Abd. 1   1   1   1  
amp.Anterior res. 0.81 (0.49; 1.33) 0.4 0.72 (0.33; 1.6) 0.424 1.04 (0.66; 1.62) 0.874 0.79 (0.5; 1.24) 0.307
B
Transition   From ED to both LR and DM or DM only From LD to both LR and DM or DM only From LR to death From both LR and DM or DM only to death
Risk factor Categories HR (95%CI) p HR (95%CI) p HR (95%CI) p HR (95%CI) p
Age (per 10 yrs)   1.01 (0.66; 1.53) 0.977 0.86 (0.58; 1.28) 0.462 1.85 (0.91; 3.76) 0.089 1.16 (0.96; 1.4) 0.125
Gender male 1   1   1   1  
female 0.88 (0.34; 2.3) 0.794 0.95 (0.42; 2.14) 0.894 4.62 (1.54; 13.89) 0.006 * 1.2 (0.83; 1.73) 0.325
Grading 1 + 2 1   1   1   1  
3 + 4 0.9 (0.32; 2.59) 0.85 1.28 (0.64; 2.56) 0.478 1.43 (0.32; 6.38) 0.636 1.07 (0.73; 1.55) 0.737
UICC Stage II 1   1   1   1  
IIIa 0.63 (0.07; 5.34) 0.672 1.12 (0.21; 5.86) 0.891 0.91 (0.19; 4.44) 0.907 1.09 (0.52; 2.28) 0.815
IIIb 1.37 (0.4; 4.66) 0.616 2.65 (0.97; 7.25) 0.059 0.76 (0.18; 3.22) 0.705 1.18 (0.72; 1.93) 0.516
IIIc 3.55 (1.16; 10.86) 0.026 * 5.33 (2; 14.19) 0.001 * 2.82 (0.54; 14.86) 0.221 1.72 (1.08; 2.75) 0.023 *
BMI (per kg/m2)   0.94 (0.83; 1.07) 0.356 0.94 (0.84; 1.06) 0.306 0.94 (0.83; 1.05) 0.265 0.97 (0.93; 1.02) 0.208
Adjuvant CTx 5-FU 1   1   1   1  
5-FU + FA 2.4 (0.78; 7.33) 0.126 0.53 (0.25; 1.13) 0.102 0.91 (0.23; 3.5) 0.885 1.29 (0.88; 1.88) 0.186
5FU + IFN-α 0.66 (0.19; 2.36) 0.524 0.82 (0.35; 1.91) 0.639 0.69 (0.25; 1.96) 0.491 1.28 (0.82; 2) 0.284
Operation type Abd. amp. 1   1   1   1  
Anterior res. 0.67 (0.25; 1.77) 0.417 0.37 (0.19; 0.72) 0.003 * 0.74 (0.23; 2.41) 0.618 0.85 (0.6; 1.21) 0.37
  1. *Result statistically significant at a 2-sided p-value < 0.05
  2. Hazard Ratio, 95% Confidence Interval and p-value for each covariate and each transition with more than 20 events (ED Early discontinuation, LD Late discontinuation, CTx chemotherapy, LR local recurrence, DM distant metastasis, CI confidence interval)