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Table 2 Hazard Ratios for transitions in the multi-state model

From: Advantages of a multi-state approach in surgical research: how intermediate events and risk factor profile affect the prognosis of a patient with locally advanced rectal cancer

Transition

 

From begin of CTx to ED

From begin of CTx to both LR and DM or DM only

From 6 < CTx < 12 to LD

From CTx = 12 to both LR and DM or DM only

A

Risk factor

Categories

HR (95%CI)

p

HR (95%CI)

p

HR (95%CI)

p

HR (95%CI)

p

Age (per 10 yrs)

 

0.91 (0.69; 1.2)

0.512

1.06 (0.69; 1.62)

0.794

1.05 (0.81; 1.36)

0.709

1.03 (0.79; 1.34)

0.821

Gender

male

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

female

1.47 (0.9; 2.4)

0.125

1.72 (0.8; 3.71)

0.167

0.69 (0.43; 1.13)

0.142

0.81 (0.5; 1.31)

0.396

Grading

1 + 2

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

3 + 4

0.78 (0.42; 1.45)

0.431

2.03 (0.9; 4.58)

0.089

1.28 (0.78; 2.08)

0.331

0.86 (0.5; 1.48)

0.59

UICC Stage

II

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

IIIa

1.42 (0.65; 3.1)

0.381

0.49 (0.06; 4.16)

0.516

0.74 (0.3; 1.79)

0.499

1.31 (0.55; 3.15)

0.544

IIIb

1.06 (0.57; 1.98)

0.846

1.05 (0.33; 3.3)

0.94

1.14 (0.66; 1.98)

0.643

2.38 (1.31; 4.35)

0.005 *

IIIc

1.01 (0.52; 1.98)

0.969

2.16 (0.78; 6.03)

0.14

1.56 (0.9; 2.7)

0.116

3.37 (1.82; 6.23)

< 0.001 *

BMI (per kg/m2)

 

0.99 (0.93; 1.06)

0.831

0.92 (0.83; 1.02)

0.116

0.98 (0.92; 1.04)

0.467

1 (0.94; 1.06)

0.982

Adjuvant CTx

5-FU

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

5-FU + FA

1.01 (0.54; 1.88)

0.982

0.72 (0.31; 1.69)

0.452

1.12 (0.68; 1.86)

0.661

0.92 (0.55; 1.53)

0.747

5FU + IFN- α

1.66 (0.92; 3.02)

0.094

0.6 (0.21; 1.71)

0.34

1.38 (0.8; 2.4)

0.25

0.96 (0.54; 1.72)

0.886

Operation type

Abd.

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

amp.Anterior res.

0.81 (0.49; 1.33)

0.4

0.72 (0.33; 1.6)

0.424

1.04 (0.66; 1.62)

0.874

0.79 (0.5; 1.24)

0.307

B

Transition

 

From ED to both LR and DM or DM only

From LD to both LR and DM or DM only

From LR to death

From both LR and DM or DM only to death

Risk factor

Categories

HR (95%CI)

p

HR (95%CI)

p

HR (95%CI)

p

HR (95%CI)

p

Age (per 10 yrs)

 

1.01 (0.66; 1.53)

0.977

0.86 (0.58; 1.28)

0.462

1.85 (0.91; 3.76)

0.089

1.16 (0.96; 1.4)

0.125

Gender

male

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

female

0.88 (0.34; 2.3)

0.794

0.95 (0.42; 2.14)

0.894

4.62 (1.54; 13.89)

0.006 *

1.2 (0.83; 1.73)

0.325

Grading

1 + 2

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

3 + 4

0.9 (0.32; 2.59)

0.85

1.28 (0.64; 2.56)

0.478

1.43 (0.32; 6.38)

0.636

1.07 (0.73; 1.55)

0.737

UICC Stage

II

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

IIIa

0.63 (0.07; 5.34)

0.672

1.12 (0.21; 5.86)

0.891

0.91 (0.19; 4.44)

0.907

1.09 (0.52; 2.28)

0.815

IIIb

1.37 (0.4; 4.66)

0.616

2.65 (0.97; 7.25)

0.059

0.76 (0.18; 3.22)

0.705

1.18 (0.72; 1.93)

0.516

IIIc

3.55 (1.16; 10.86)

0.026 *

5.33 (2; 14.19)

0.001 *

2.82 (0.54; 14.86)

0.221

1.72 (1.08; 2.75)

0.023 *

BMI (per kg/m2)

 

0.94 (0.83; 1.07)

0.356

0.94 (0.84; 1.06)

0.306

0.94 (0.83; 1.05)

0.265

0.97 (0.93; 1.02)

0.208

Adjuvant CTx

5-FU

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

5-FU + FA

2.4 (0.78; 7.33)

0.126

0.53 (0.25; 1.13)

0.102

0.91 (0.23; 3.5)

0.885

1.29 (0.88; 1.88)

0.186

5FU + IFN-α

0.66 (0.19; 2.36)

0.524

0.82 (0.35; 1.91)

0.639

0.69 (0.25; 1.96)

0.491

1.28 (0.82; 2)

0.284

Operation type

Abd. amp.

1

 

1

 

1

 

1

 

Anterior res.

0.67 (0.25; 1.77)

0.417

0.37 (0.19; 0.72)

0.003 *

0.74 (0.23; 2.41)

0.618

0.85 (0.6; 1.21)

0.37

  1. *Result statistically significant at a 2-sided p-value < 0.05
  2. Hazard Ratio, 95% Confidence Interval and p-value for each covariate and each transition with more than 20 events (ED Early discontinuation, LD Late discontinuation, CTx chemotherapy, LR local recurrence, DM distant metastasis, CI confidence interval)