Using an onset-anchored Bayesian hierarchical model to improve predictions for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression

Table 2 Median reduction to MSE, in percentage, for covariates which improved the MSE in the onset-anchored model. The inter-quartile range (IQR) for the percent reduction as well as average difference in DIC is shown as well

Covariate Name	Median % MSE reduction (negative values signify an increase to the MSE)	IQR for % MSE reduction	Mean DIC adjustment (larger values result in larger DIC)
Onset Time	0.0174	0.027	2.8
FVC: Subject Liters (slope)	0.0095	0.02	−3.5
Q1: Speech (slope)	0.0081	0.0187	0.8
Diagnosis Time	0.0059	0.0183	−2.1
Q7: Turning in Bed(slope)	0.0052	0.0182	−3.5
Q8: Walking (slope)	0.0052	0.0254	−2.2
AST (slope)	0.0043	0.0179	−0.3
Q5: Cutting (slope)	0.0043	0.0202	−1.5
Q6: Dressing/Hygiene (slope)	0.0039	0.0223	−1.9
ALT (slope)	0.0034	0.0166	0.1
Q2: Salivation (slope)	0.0032	0.0195	1.7
Q9: Climbing Stairs (slope)	0.003	0.0232	−2
AST (intercept)	0.0028	0.0162	0.8
FVC: Percent Normal (slope)	0.0025	0.0225	−3.4
Race	0.0021	0.0156	−0.1
ALT (intercept)	0.0021	0.0182	−0.7
Bilirubin Total (slope)	0.0019	0.0196	−0.5
Respiratory Rate (intercept)	0.0017	0.0146	0.3
Q2: Salivation (intercept)	0.0013	0.0203	−1.4
Creatinine (intercept)	0.0011	0.0152	−0.7
Age	0.001	0.0185	−2.1
Q1: Speech (intercept)	0.001	0.0224	2.2
Potassium (slope)	0.001	0.0136	−0.9
Onset Site: Bulbar	0.001	0.0171	−0.5
Height	0.0009	0.0169	0.8
Weight (slope)	0.0009	0.0174	−1.7
Sodium (intercept)	0.0008	0.0188	1
Bilirubin Total (intercept)	0.0008	0.0183	0.8
Sex	0.0006	0.0169	−0.4
Q10: Respiratory (slope)	0.0006	0.0153	0.8
Q4: Handwriting (slope)	0.0006	0.0206	−0.7
Weight (intercept)	0.0006	0.0181	−0.5
Q5: Cutting (intercept)	0.0002	0.0224	−4.1

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