Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 1 Overview of the informative priors and the models used for updating informative and minimally-informative priors

From: A dynamic Bayesian Markov model for health economic evaluations of interventions in infectious disease

Parameter Description Distribution/model BMM Distribution/model BODE Mean 2.5/97.5% percentiles
ω M H Partner acquisition rate (high-risk males) Poisson-Gamma model Equivalent to BMM 9.10 [8.77;9.29]
ω M L Partner acquisition rate (low-risk males) Poisson-Gamma model Equivalent to BMM 2.98 [2.82;3.12]
ω F H Partner acquisition rate (high-risk females) Poisson-Gamma model Equivalent to BMM 9.00 [8.71;9.26]
ω F L Partner acquisition rate (low-risk females) Poisson-Gamma model Equivalent to BMM 1.96 [1.86;2.09]
χ Proliferation parameter Gamma(1111.1,111111.1) Gamma(1111.1,111111.1) 0.01 [0.01;0.01]
β STI transmission probability per partnership Beta-Binomial model Equivalent to BMM 0.16 [0.15;0.16]
π 2,3 Transition parameter from state 2 to state 3 Beta(5119.2, 1279.8) Gamma(25600,32000) 0.80 [0.79;0.81]
π 3,4 Transition parameter from state 3 to state 4 Beta(1842.66, 18631.34) Gamma(2025,22500) 0.09 [0.09;0.09]
π 4,5 Transition parameter from state 4 to state 5 Beta(1535.96, 36863.04) Gamma(1600,40000) 0.04 [0.04;0.04]
π 1,5 Transition parameter from state 1 to state 5 Beta(156.171, 312186.6) Gamma(156.25,312500) <0.01 [<0.01;<0.01]
η Probability of STI diagnosis Beta-Binomial model Equivalent to BMM 0.90 [0.88;0.92]
σ Screening probability Beta-Binomial model Equivalent to BMM 0.90 [0.87;0.92]
α Vaccine coverage parameter Beta-Binomial model Equivalent to BMM 0.90 [0.87;0.92]
γ Vaccine efficacy parameter Beta-Binomial model Equivalent to BMM 0.90 [0.87;0.92]
c screen Unit cost of screening in £ Lognormal(2.996, 0.693) Equivalent to BMM 25.39 [5.19;77.53]
c vac Unit cost of vaccination in £ Lognormal(5.011, 0.01) Equivalent to BMM 150.02 [147.14;152.98]
c test Unit cost of STI test in £ Lognormal(2.996, 0.03) Equivalent to BMM 20.01 [18.83;21.19]
c blood Unit cost of blood test in £ Lognormal(3.401, 0.03) Equivalent to BMM 30 [28.26;31.79]
c treat Unit cost of treatment in £ Lognormal(8.517, 0.015) Equivalent to BMM 4999.78 [4853.56;5149.24]
c dis Unit cost of disease treatment in £ Lognormal(9.210, 0.01) Equivalent to BMM 9999.95 [9802.97;10198.10]
c gp Unit cost of visit to general practitioner in £ Lognormal(3.912, 0.02) Equivalent to BMM 50.01 [48.08;52.01]
u 2 Health utility of infected (min=0, max=1) Beta(1469.3, 629.7) Equivalent to BMM 0.70 [0.68;0.72]
u 3 Health utility of asymptomatic (min=0, max=1) Beta(1439.4, 959.6) Equivalent to BMM 0.60 [0.58;0.62]
u 4 Health utility of morbid (min=0, max=1) Beta(629.7, 1469.3) Equivalent to BMM 0.30 [0.28;0.32]
  1. The values are fictional and were chosen so as to produce most realistic prevalence outcome and cost-effectiveness results