Posterior from model development data
    
Prediction for new cluster c


Iteration
    
Subject 1

…

Subject n_{c}


k

\( {\overset{\sim }{\beta}}_0^{(k)} \)

\( {\overset{\sim }{\beta}}_1^{(k)} \)

\( {{\overset{\sim }{\sigma}}_u^2}^{(k)} \)

\( {\widehat{u}}_c^{(k)} \)
^{a}

x
_{1
c}

\( {\widehat{p}}_{1c}^{(k)} \)
^{b}

…

\( {x}_{n_cc} \)

\( {\widehat{p}}_{n_cc}^{(k)} \)
^{b}


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5001

−1.35

1.07

1.17

.50

1.11

.58

…

−.46

.21

5011

−1.24

1.08

.88

−1.89

1.11

.13

…

−.46

.03

5021

−1.36

1.18

1.28

−.06

1.11

.47

…

−.46

.12

5031

−1.31

1.05

.98

−.64

1.11

.31

…

−.46

.08

5041

−.94

.98

1.37

.26

1.11

.60

…

−.46

.24

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Median
     
.52
  
.15

 ^{a}random effect sampled from the normal distribution \( N\left(0,{{\overset{\sim }{\sigma}}_u^2}^{(k)}\right) \)
 ^{b}predicted risk calculated by \( {\widehat{p}}_{\mathrm{sc}}^{(k)}=\frac{1}{1+\exp \left({\overset{\sim }{\beta}}_0^{(k)}+{\overset{\sim }{\beta}}_1^{(k)}{x}_{sc}+{\widehat{u}}_c^{(k)}\right)} \)