Fig. 4

Cumulative failure estimates by study follow-up using extreme examples from simulation study I (n = 500 subjects). The figure shows the derived cumulative estimate of recrudescence in three cases from simulation study I where the maximum difference was observed between 1-(K-M) and CIF for 5, 10 and 15% respectively in the areas of very high transmission (> 40% new infections). The absolute difference between the two estimators was 1.8, 3.1 and 4.3% on day 63 respectively for 5, 10 and 15% recrudescence. These three cases are the extreme cases presented in Fig. 3 for the scenarios where > 40% new infections were observed