A Bayesian non-inferiority approach using experts’ margin elicitation – application to the monitoring of safety events

Table 6 Observations and decision obtained by application of the Bayesian decision rule to a data set

Analysis	N		Death				Intraventricular haemorrhage						Necrotising enterocolitis						Retinopathy
			Observations				Bayesian		Observations				Bayesian		Observations				Bayesian		Observations				Bayesian
	FD	HD	FD		HD		Post	Deci-	FD		HD		Post	Deci-	FD		HD		Post	Deci-	FD		HD		Post	Deci-
	arm	arm	arm		arm		prob.	sion	arm		arm		prob.	sion	arm		arm		prob.	sion	arm		arm		prob.	sion
			n	%	n	%			n	%	n	%			n	%	n	%			n	%	n	%
1	10	20	5	0.50	11	0.55	0.60	0	0	0	1	0.05	0.42	0	0	0	1	0.05	0.59	0	0	0	2	0.10	0.69	0
2	25	35	12	0.48	20	0.57	0.66	0	1	0.04	6	0.17	0.71	0	1	0.04	2	0.06	0.55	0	0	0	4	0.11	0.84	0
3	39	51	16	0.41	29	0.57	0.79	0	3	0.08	9	0.18	0.70	0	3	0.08	7	0.14	0.75	0	0	0	5	0.10	0.87	0
4	54	68	22	0.41	42	0.62	0.89	0	4	0.07	13	0.19	0.80	0	5	0.09	10	0.15	0.74	0	0	0	8	0.12	0.95	0
5	77	80	32	0.42	53	0.66	0.94	0	8	0.10	17	0.21	0.81	0	5	0.06	10	0.12	0.79	0	4	0.05	9	0.11	0.78	0
6	88	92	34	0.39	58	0.63	0.95	1	9	0.10	22	0.24	0.89	0	6	0.07	12	0.13	0.81	0	5	0.06	10	0.11	0.76	0
7	99	104	39	0.39	65	0.62	0.95		14	0.14	25	0.24	0.81	0	10	0.10	16	0.15	0.76	0	5	0.05	12	0.12	0.83	0
8	116	121	45	0.39	72	0.60	0.94		16	0.14	31	0.26	0.88	0	10	0.09	18	0.15	0.83	0	6	0.05	12	0.10	0.76	0
9	127	139	50	0.39	80	0.58	0.93		18	0.14	33	0.24	0.84	0	11	0.09	20	0.14	0.83	0	6	0.05	13	0.09	0.76	0
10	143	157	54	0.38	86	0.55	0.93		21	0.15	37	0.24	0.83	1	12	0.08	24	0.15	0.88	0	6	0.04	15	0.10	0.82	0
11	154	163	60	0.39	90	0.55	0.92		24	0.16	37	0.23	0.76		12	0.08	24	0.15	0.89	1	7	0.05	15	0.09	0.78	1

ISSN: 1471-2288