Table 3 pABCtime between the mean of the individual effects or cohort net survival estimated using the selected models and the true generating effects/cohort net survival, by scenario (A-D), and model selection strategy

Cohort net survival

Stage

A

B

C

D

HR age

Stage

A

B

C

D

MVRS / aMVRS

I

1.67%

1.62%

0.79%

1.09%

MVRS / aMVRS

I

0.34%

2.43%

0.35%

4.40%

II

0.94%

1.60%

0.99%

1.10%

II

3.56%

5.86%

III

0.56%

0.53%

0.16%

1.37%

III

0.01%

0.73%

IV

0.36%

0.36%

0.11%

0.31%

IV

0.13%

2.15%

W&A / aW&A

I

0.05%

1.63%

0.04%

0.89%

W&A / aW&A

I

0.33%

2.35%

0.23%

2.88%

II

0.20%

1.60%

0.01%

1.00%

II

3.45%

4.13%

III

0.06%

0.54%

0.94%

1.18%

III

0.02%

0.61%

IV

0.13%

0.37%

0.68%

0.08%

IV

0.12%

1.26%

MFPIgen

I

0.09%

0.08%

MFPIgen

I

2.55%

2.73%

II

0.13%

1.11%

II

3.76%

3.92%

III

1.18%

0.99%

III

0.01%

0.63%

IV

0.21%

0.71%

IV

0.06%

1.86%

HR stage

Stage

A

B

C

D

HR deprivation

Deprivation

A

B

C

D

MVRS / aMVRS

I

MVRS / aMVRS

2

1.20%

0.03%

0.34%

1.38%

II

2.25%

3.30%

2.44%

1.01%

3

0.23%

0.03%

0.39%

0.75%

III

1.71%

1.75%

1.20%

2.96%

4

0.93%

0.40%

0.21%

1.24%

IV

2.49%

1.93%

2.15%

5.49%

5

0.13%

0.26%

0.53%

1.36%

W&A / aW&A

I

W&A / aW&A

2

1.20%

0.02%

0.26%

1.20%

II

2.35%

3.36%

2.32%

1.71%

3

0.27%

0.01%

0.35%

0.57%

III

1.66%

1.86%

0.85%

3.42%

4

0.95%

0.23%

0.12%

0.84%

IV

2.52%

2.08%

1.80%

5.24%

5

0.13%

0.50%

0.28%

1.20%

MFPIgen

I

MFPIgen

2

0.03%

1.81%

II

3.25%

1.39%

3

0.02%

1.02%

III

1.67%

3.36%

4

0.44%

1.11%

IV

1.83%

5.37%

5

0.23%

1.38%

HR comorbidity

A

B

C

D

MVRS / aMVRS

0.31%

0.22%

0.08%

0.18%

W&A / aW&A

0.59%

0.34%

0.12%

0.12%

MFPIgen

0.36%

0.17%