Table 4 Sensitivity analysis for diagnostic performance (95% confidence intervals) compared to Medicare referent standards
A. With addition of self-reported symptoms (orthopnea and/or paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea) | ||||||||
HF according to Medicare N (%) | Excluded from HF-free cohort N | Included in HF-free cohort N | NPV % | PPV % | Sens % | Spec % | ||
Hospitalization for HF | + | 293 (2.9%) | 256 | 37 | 99.5% (99.3–99.7%) | 9.5% (8.4–10.6%) | 87.4% (83.6–91.2%) | 75.1% (74.2–75.9%) |
– | 9766 (97.1%) | 2436 | 7330 | |||||
Principal diagnosis of HF | + | 968 (9.6%) | 746 | 222 | 97.0% (96.6–97.4%) | 27.7% (26.0–29.4%) | 77.1% (74.4–79.7%) | 78.6% (77.8–79.4%) |
– | 9091 (90.4%) | 1946 | 7145 | |||||
Any diagnosis of HF | + | 1135 (11.3%) | 838 | 297 | 96.0% (95.5–96.4%) | 31.1% (29.4–32.9%) | 73.8% (71.3–76.4%) | 79.2% (78.4–80.1%) |
– | 8924 (88.7%) | 1854 | 7070 | |||||
B. With addition of adjudicated heart failure | ||||||||
HF according to Medicare N (%) | Excluded from HF-free cohort N | Included in HF-free cohort N | NPV % | PPV % | Sens % | Spec % | ||
Hospitalization for HF | + | 293 (2.9%) | 236 | 57 | 99.3% (99.2–99.5%) | 14.6% (12.9–16.4%) | 80.5% (76.0–85.1%) | 85.9% (85.2–86.6%) |
– | 9766 (97.1%) | 1375 | 8391 | |||||
Principal diagnosis of HF | + | 968 (9.6%) | 657 | 311 | 96.3% (95.9–96.7%) | 40.8% (38.4–43.2%) | 67.9% (64.9–70.8%) | 89.5% (88.9–90.1%) |
– | 9091 (90.4%) | 954 | 8137 | |||||
Any diagnosis of HF | + | 1135 (11.3%) | 724 | 411 | 95.1% (94.7–95.6%) | 44.9% (42.5–47.4%) | 63.8% (61.0–66.6%) | 90.1% (89.4–90.7%) |
– | 8924 (88.7%) | 887 | 8037 | |||||