Table 4 Discrimination performance of the existing models externally validated across the OHDSI datasets

T1: Females aged 65+ with atrial fibrillation no prior stroke or anticoagulants

ATRIA

–

0.57 (0.55–0.58)

0.63 (0.62–0.64)

0.61

0.62

0.64 (0.61–0.68)

0.60 (0.33–0.87)

0.49 (0.40–0.58)

CHADS₂

–

0.54 (0.53–0.56)

0.60 (0.59–0.61)

0.59

0.60

0.60 (0.57–0.64)

0.51 (0.27–0.75)

0.48 (0.39–0.57)

CHA₂DS₂VASc

–

0.55 (0.53–0.57)

0.60 (0.59–0.61)

0.59

0.62

0.61 (0.58–0.65)

0.53 (0.32–0.74)

0.52 (0.42–0.62)

Framingham

–

0.56 (0.54–0.57)

0.62 (0.61–0.63)

0.59

0.61

0.63 (0.60–0.66)

0.58 (0.33–0.83)

0.61 (0.52–0.70)

Q-Stroke

–

0.53 (0.52–0.55)

0.56 (0.55–0.57)

0.55

0.56

0.55 (0.51–0.59)

0.56 (0.29–0.84)

0.50 (0.41–0.59)

T2: Females with atrial fibrillation no prior stroke or anticoagulants

ATRIA

0.62 (0.60–0.64)

0.58 (0.56–0.59)

–

0.65

0.65

0.66 (0.62–0.69)

0.73 (0.58–0.89)

0.52 (0.44–0.60)

CHADS₂

0.61 (0.59–0.62)

0.56 (0.55–0.57)

–

0.62

0.63

0.63 (0.60–0.66)

0.63 (0.43–0.83)

0.50 (0.42–0.57)

CHA₂DS₂VASc

0.63 (0.61–0.65)

0.58 (0.56–0.59)

–

0.64

0.65

0.64 (0.61–0.67)

0.73 (0.60–0.85)

0.55 (0.47–0.62)

Framingham

0.62 (0.60–0.64)

0.57 (0.56–0.59)

–

0.64

0.65

0.65 (0.62–0.68)

0.70 (0.53–0.86)

0.61 (0.53–0.69)

Q-Stroke

0.61 (0.59–0.63)

0.54 (0.53–0.56)

–

0.57

0.58

0.56 (0.53–0.60)

0.63 (0.39–0.88)

0.51 (0.43–0.59)

Sensitivity T1: Females aged 65+ with atrial fibrillation no prior stroke or anticoagulants (no anticoagulants during 1 year time-at-risk)

ATRIA

–

0.56 (0.55–0.58)

0.63 (0.62–0.64)

0.61 (0.61–0.62)

0.63 (0.61–0.64)

0.65 (0.62–0.69)

0.69 (0.43–0.95)

0.55 (0.47–0.62)

CHADS₂

–

0.54 (0.53–0.56)

0.61 (0.60–0.62)

0.59 (0.58–0.60)

0.61 (0.59–0.62)

0.62 (0.58–0.65)

0.61 (0.36–0.85)

0.51 (0.38–0.63)

CHA₂DS₂VASc

–

0.55 (0.54–0.57)

0.61 (0.60–0.62)

0.59 (0.58–0.60)

0.63 (0.61–0.64)

0.63 (0.59–0.66)

0.64 (0.45–0.83)

0.55 (0.42–0.67)

Framingham

–

0.55 (0.54–0.57)

0.62 (0.61–0.63)

0.59 (0.59–0.60)

0.62 (0.61–0.63)

0.64 (0.61–0.68)

0.68 (0.44–0.93)

0.64 (0.53–0.74)

Q-Stroke

–

0.53 (0.52–0.55)

0.57 (0.55–0.58)

0.55 (0.54–0.56)

0.57 (0.55–0.58)

0.56 (0.52–0.60)

0.61 (0.30–0.92)

0.47 (0.35–0.58)

Sensitivity T2: Females with atrial fibrillation no prior stroke or anticoagulants (no anticoagulants during 1-year time-at-risk)

ATRIA

0.63 (0.61–0.66)

0.58 (0.56–0.59)

–

0.67

0.67

0.67 (0.64–0.70)

0.79 (0.63–0.94)

0.53 (0.43–0.63)

CHADS₂

0.62 (0.60–0.65)

0.56 (0.55–0.58)

–

0.64

0.65

0.64 (0.61–0.68)

0.72 (0.53–0.91)

0.51 (0.41–0.62)

CHA₂DS₂VASc

0.65 (0.62–0.67)

0.58 (0.56–0.59)

–

0.65

0.67

0.66 (0.63–0.69)

0.81 (0.71–0.90)

0.55 (0.44–0.65)

Framingham

0.64 (0.61–0.66)

0.57 (0.56–0.59)

–

0.65

0.66

0.66 (0.63–0.69)

0.76 (0.59–0.93)

0.62 (0.51–0.72)

Q-Stroke

0.62 (0.60–0.64)

0.55 (0.53–0.56)

–

0.58

0.6

0.57 (0.53–0.61)

0.68 (0.42–0.94)

0.47 (0.36–0.57)