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Table 3 Statistical goodness-of-fit scores of fitted models

From: Evaluation of survival extrapolation in immuno-oncology using multiple pre-planned data cuts: learnings to aid in model selection

Statistic

Model

12mo mFU

18mo mFU

24mo mFU

36mo mFU

-2LogL

Log-logistic

375.3

429.4

453.5

483.0

Log-normal

373.7

427.5

451.3

480.5

Gen Gamma

373.3

426.5

448.7

475.0

1-knot Hazard

373.3

426.5

448.0

471.9

1-knot Odds

373.3

426.3

447.8

472.5

1-knot Normal

373.4

426.6

448.8

474.2

2-knot Hazard

373.4

426.5

447.4

470.8

2-knot Odds

373.3

426.3

447.3

471.3

2-knot Normal

373.2

426.2 (2)

447.2

471.1

3-knot Hazard

372.7 (3)

426.4

446.6 (2)

469.6 (1)

3-knot Odds

372.5 (2)

426.3 (3)

446.7 (3)

469.9 (3)

3-knot Normal

372.2 (1)

426.1 (1)

446.6 (1)

469.8 (2)

AIC

Log-logistic

379.3

433.4

457.5

487.0

Log-normal

377.7 (1)

431.5 (1)

455.3

484.5

Gen Gamma

379.3

432.5

454.7 (3)

481.0

1-knot Hazard

379.3 (3)

432.5 (3)

454.0 (2)

477.9 (1)

1-knot Odds

379.3 (2)

432.3 (2)

453.8 (1)

478.5 (2)

1-knot Normal

379.4

432.6

454.8

480.2

2-knot Hazard

381.4

434.5

455.4

478.8 (3)

2-knot Odds

381.3

434.3

455.3

479.3

2-knot Normal

381.2

434.2

455.2

479.1

3-knot Hazard

382.7

436.4

456.6

479.6

3-knot Odds

382.5

436.3

456.7

479.9

3-knot Normal

382.2

436.1

456.6

479.8

AICc

Log-logistic

379.4 (2)

433.5

457.6

487.2

Log-normal

377.8 (1)

431.7 (1)

455.5

484.7

Gen Gamma

379.6

432.8

455.0 (3)

481.3

1-knot Hazard

379.6

432.8 (3)

454.3 (2)

478.2 (1)

1-knot Odds

379.5 (3)

432.6 (2)

454.1 (1)

478.8 (2)

1-knot Normal

379.6

432.9

455.0

480.5

2-knot Hazard

381.9

434.9

455.9

479.3 (3)

2-knot Odds

381.8

434.8

455.8

479.7

2-knot Normal

381.7

434.7

455.7

479.6

3-knot Hazard

383.4

437.2

457.3

480.3

3-knot Odds

383.2

437.0

457.4

480.6

3-knot Normal

382.9

436.8

457.3

480.6

HQC

Log-logistic

381.3 (2)

435.4 (3)

459.5

489.0

Log-normal

379.7 (1)

433.5 (1)

457.3 (3)

486.5

Gen Gamma

382.3

435.5

457.7

484.0

1-knot Hazard

382.3

435.5

457.0 (2)

480.9 (1)

1-knot Odds

382.3 (3)

435.3 (2)

456.8 (1)

481.5 (2)

1-knot Normal

382.4

435.6

457.8

483.2

2-knot Hazard

385.4

438.5

459.4

482.8 (3)

2-knot Odds

385.3

438.3

459.3

483.2

2-knot Normal

385.2

438.2

459.2

483.1

3-knot Hazard

387.7

441.4

461.6

484.6

3-knot Odds

387.4

441.3

461.7

484.9

3-knot Normal

387.2

441.1

461.6

484.8

BIC

Log-logistic

384.2 (2)

438.4 (2)

462.4

492.0

Log-normal

382.7 (1)

436.5 (1)

460.3 (1)

489.5

Gen Gamma

386.8

440.0

462.1

488.4

1-knot Hazard

386.7

440.0

461.4 (3)

485.3 (1)

1-knot Odds

386.7 (3)

439.7 (3)

461.2 (2)

485.9 (2)

1-knot Normal

386.8

440.0

462.2

487.7 (3)

2-knot Hazard

391.3

444.4

465.3

488.7

2-knot Odds

391.2

444.2

465.2

489.2

2-knot Normal

391.1

444.1

465.1

489.0

3-knot Hazard

395.1

448.8

469.0

492.0

3-knot Odds

394.8

448.7

469.1

492.3

3-knot Normal

394.6

448.5

469.0

492.2

  1. Key:AIC Akaike information criterion; AICc Akaike information criterion (corrected); BIC Bayesian information criterion; Hannan–Quinn information criterion; L Maximized likelihood function; log Natural logarithm; mFU Minimum follow up; mo Month(s)
  2. Note: For each of the scores presented above, a lower value indicates a better statistical goodness-of-fit. The “best” fitting model (i.e. the model with the lowest score) is denoted with “(1)” after the score, and is shaded in dark grey. Models with ranks 2 and 3 are formatted similarly