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Table 4 The probability of flagged trials for the AEs under the no effect for scenario I

From: Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical modeling for blinded and unblinded safety monitoring in randomized clinical trials

Example AEs

(True Proportion; Expected Event Rate)

Blinded: Proportion with signal for early termination

Unblinded: Termination Proportion with confirmed by unblinded data

(Pcrit1, Pcrit2)

(0.9, 0.7)

(0.9, 0.8)

(0.9, 0.9)

Pneumothorax

Induced by HBO therapy

(π = 2%; πM = 2%)

Blinded

0.02

0.02

0.01

Unblinded

0.58

0.40

0.16

Overall Rate

0.01

0.01

0.00

Signs of Pulmonary Dysfunction

(π = 25%; πM = 25%)

Blinded

0.05

0.05

0.06

Unblinded

0.40

0.26

0.16

Overall Rate

0.02

0.01

0.01

Pneumonia

(π = 40%; πM = 40%)

Blinded

0.06

0.06

0.06

Unblinded

0.41

0.24

0.13

Overall Rate

0.03

0.02

0.01

Critical decreased CPP (< 60 mmHg)

(π = 75%; πM = 75%)

Blinded

0.06

0.06

0.07

Unblinded

0.45

0.30

0.16

Overall Rate

0.03

0.02

0.01

Critical hypotension (MAP< 70 mmHg)

(π = 75%; πM = 75%)

Blinded

0.06

0.07

0.06

Unblinded

0.44

0.31

0.16

Overall Rate

0.03

0.02

0.01

Seizures during HBO treatment

(π = 1%; πM = 1%)

Blinded

0.01

0.01

0.01

Unblinded

0.53

0.40

0.11

Overall Rate

0.00

0.00

0.00

Hypercarbia during transportation

(PaCO2 > 45 mmHg)

(π = 10%; πM = 10%)

Blinded

0.04

0.04

0.04

Unblinded

0.41

0.27

0.14

Overall Rate

0.01

0.01

0.01

  

Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER)

Overall

Adverse

Events

Blinded

0.18

0.17

0.19

Unblinded

0.57

0.44

0.25

Overall Rate

0.10

0.08

0.05