Skip to main content

Table 1 Performance measures of time series techniques for under-five mortality rates in Nigeria

From: Time series prediction of under-five mortality rates for Nigeria: comparative analysis of artificial neural networks, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models

Model GMDH-type ANN ARIMA Holt-Winters exponential smoothing
Best parameters Training set = 80%, testing set = 20% p = 0, d = 3, q = 2 α=0.91, β=0.51
RMSE 0.09 0.23 2.87
RMAE 0.25 0.41 1.20
Modified NSE 0.998 0.996 0.967
DM test statistic Reference −3.608* −4.474*
  1. *significant at p-value < 0.05; p = number of autoregressive terms, d = number of differencing, q = number of moving average terms; RMSE: Root mean squared error; RMAE: Root mean absolute error; α=coefficient for the level smoothing; β= coefficient for the trend smoothing; modified NSE: modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient; DM: Diebold-Mariano test