Table 2 Short-term predictions of total number of reported cases at the national level under the 3 Parameter logistic, 4 parameter logistic and Richards model. Estimation period 05/03/2020–22/06/2020
3 Parameter Logistic | 4 Parameter Logistic | Richards model | Observed | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Prediction | Prediction interval | Prediction | Prediction interval | Prediction | Prediction interval | |
26-Jun-20 | 128,257 | 127,305–129,275 | 128,292 | 127,071–129,025 | 125,141 | 123,394–126,557 | 124,590 |
1-Jul-20 | 158,859 | 157,074–160,633 | 158,948 | 156,884–160,560 | 149,039 | 143,886–153,385 | 159,333 |
6-Jul-20 | 193,359 | 190,007–196,599 | 193,543 | 189,877–196,681 | 170,681 | 159,866–180,740 | 205,721 |
11-Jul-20 | 230,852 | 225,263–236,388 | 231,182 | 225,077–236,880 | 188,091 | 170,432–206,750 | 264,184 |
17-Jul-20 | 270,005 | 261,460–278,480 | 270,539 | 261,003–279,896 | 200,661 | 176,633–229,649 | 324,221 |
22-Jul-20 | 309,224 | 297,266–321,792 | 310,020 | 296,347–323,957 | 208,985 | 179,833–247,952 | 381,798 |