TY - JOUR AU - Hippisley-Cox, J. AU - Coupland, C. AU - Brindle, P. PY - 2017 DA - 2017// TI - Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study JO - BMJ VL - 357 UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.j2099 DO - 10.1136/bmj.j2099 ID - Hippisley-Cox2017 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pate, A. AU - Emsley, R. AU - Ashcroft, D. M. AU - Brown, B. AU - Staa, T. PY - 2019 DA - 2019// TI - The uncertainty with using risk prediction models for individual decision making : an exemplar cohort study examining the prediction of cardiovascular disease in English primary care JO - BMC Med BMC Medicine VL - 17 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-019-1368-8 DO - 10.1186/s12916-019-1368-8 ID - Pate2019 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bhatnagar, P. AU - Wickramasinghe, K. AU - Williams, J. AU - Townsend, N. PY - 2016 DA - 2016// TI - Trends in the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in the UK JO - Heart. VL - 102 UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309573 DO - 10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309573 ID - Bhatnagar2016 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Smolina, K. AU - Wright, F. L. AU - Rayner, M. AU - Goldacre, M. J. PY - 2012 DA - 2012// TI - Determinants of the decline in mortality from acute myocardial infarction in England between 2002 and 2010: linked national database study JO - BMJ VL - 344 UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.d8059 DO - 10.1136/bmj.d8059 ID - Smolina2012 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lee, S. AU - Shafe, A. C. E. AU - Cowie, M. R. PY - 2011 DA - 2011// TI - UK stroke incidence, mortality and cardiovascular risk management 1999-2008: time-trend analysis from the general practice research database JO - BMJ Open VL - 1 ID - Lee2011 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Rothwell, P. M. AU - Coull, A. J. AU - Giles, M. F. AU - Howard, S. C. AU - Silver, L. E. AU - Bull, L. M. PY - 2004 DA - 2004// TI - Change in stroke incidence, mortality, case-fatality, severity, and risk factors in Oxfordshire, UK from 1981 to 2004 (Oxford vascular study) JO - Lancet. VL - 363 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16405-2 DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16405-2 ID - Rothwell2004 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herrett, E. AU - Gallagher, A. M. AU - Bhaskaran, K. AU - Forbes, H. AU - Mathur, R. AU - Staa, T. PY - 2015 DA - 2015// TI - Data resource profile: clinical practice research Datalink (CPRD) JO - Int J Epidemiol VL - 44 UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyv098 DO - 10.1093/ije/dyv098 ID - Herrett2015 ER - TY - STD TI - NHS Digital. Hospital Episode Statistics [Internet]. [cited 2018 May 3]. Available from: https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/data-tools-and-services/data-services/hospital-episode-statistics. UR - https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/data-tools-and-services/data-services/hospital-episode-statistics ID - ref8 ER - TY - STD TI - Office for National Statistics [Internet]. [cited 2018 May 3]. Available from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/. UR - https://www.ons.gov.uk/ ID - ref9 ER - TY - STD TI - van Buuren S, Groothuis-oudshoorn K. mice: Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations in R. J Stat Softw. 2011;45(3) Available from: https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v045i03. UR - https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v045i03 ID - ref10 ER - TY - STD TI - Benner A. Multivariable Fractional Polynomials [Internet]. [cited 2018 Jul 24]. Available from: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mfp/vignettes/mfp_vignette.pdf. UR - https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mfp/vignettes/mfp_vignette.pdf ID - ref11 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Textor, J. AU - Zander, B. AU - Gilthorpe, M. S. AU - Liskiewicz, M. AU - Ellison, G. T. PY - 2016 DA - 2016// TI - Robust causal inference using directed acyclic graphs: the R package “ dagitty” JO - Int J Epidemiol VL - 45 ID - Textor2016 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Sperrin, M. AU - Martin, G. P. AU - Pate, A. AU - Staa, T. AU - Peek, N. AU - Buchan, I. PY - 2018 DA - 2018// TI - Using marginal structural models to adjust for treatment drop-in when developing clinical prediction models JO - Stat Med VL - 37 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7913 DO - 10.1002/sim.7913 ID - Sperrin2018 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Robins, J. M. AU - Hernán, M. A. AU - Brumback, B. PY - 2000 DA - 2000// TI - Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology JO - Epidemiology. VL - 11 UR - https://doi.org/10.1097/00001648-200009000-00011 DO - 10.1097/00001648-200009000-00011 ID - Robins2000 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hernán, M. AU - Brumback, B. AU - Robins, J. PY - 2000 DA - 2000// TI - Marginal structural models to estimate the causal effect of zidovudine on the survival of HIV-positive men JO - Epidemiology. VL - 11 UR - https://doi.org/10.1097/00001648-200009000-00012 DO - 10.1097/00001648-200009000-00012 ID - Hernán2000 ER - TY - BOOK AU - Therneau, T. M. PY - 2015 DA - 2015// TI - A package for Survival Analysis in S_. version 2.38 ID - Therneau2015 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Wal, W. M. AU - Geskus, R. B. PY - 2011 DA - 2011// TI - IPW: An R Package for Inverse Probability Weighting JO - J Stat Softw VL - 43 UR - https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v043.i13 DO - 10.18637/jss.v043.i13 ID - Wal2011 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cole, S. R. AU - Hernán, M. A. PY - 2008 DA - 2008// TI - Constructing inverse probability weights for marginal structural models JO - Am J Epidemiol VL - 168 UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn164 DO - 10.1093/aje/kwn164 ID - Cole2008 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Collins, G. S. AU - Altman, D. G. PY - 2010 DA - 2010// TI - An independent and external validation of QRISK2 cardiovascular disease risk score: a prospective open cohort study JO - BMJ. VL - 340 UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.c2442 DO - 10.1136/bmj.c2442 ID - Collins2010 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jenkins, D. A. AU - Sperrin, M. AU - Martin, G. P. AU - Peek, N. PY - 2018 DA - 2018// TI - Dynamic models to predict health outcomes: current status and methodological challenges JO - Diagnostic Progn Res VL - 2 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-018-0045-2 DO - 10.1186/s41512-018-0045-2 ID - Jenkins2018 ER - TY - BOOK PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - CG181 Lipid modification Appendicies - Cardiovascular risk assessment and the modification of blood lipids for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease ID - ref21 ER -