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Table 3 Average predicted CVD risk for patients in the validation cohort before and after secular trend was introduced, using an MSM and an interval censored Cox model

From: An assessment of the potential miscalibration of cardiovascular disease risk predictions caused by a secular trend in cardiovascular disease in England

  Predicted CVD risk (average) Relative reduction in risk
Not adjusted for secular trend Adjusted for secular trend
Interval censored Cox
 Female 1.284% 0.826% 35.68%
 Male 1.911% 1.274% 33.31%
Marginal structural model
 Female 1.287% 0.859% 33.24%
 Male 1.941% 1.307% 32.67%