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Table 1 Summary of studies included in the quantitative synthesis

From: A systematic review of methodology used in the development of prediction models for future asthma exacerbation

Publication Country Source Age of participants Primary outcome/Definition Follow up duration Sample size (Development/Validation) Events per variable Predictors in model
Bateman 2014 [22] Multiple 3 double blind trials
Retrospective
12–89 Time to first exacerbation/ GINA 6–12 months 4962/2482 NR/24 Body mass index (BMI), Asthma control questionnaire 5 (ACQ-5) score, Post bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), Reliever use, GINA step.
Blakey 2017 [23] UK UK electronic medical database
Retrospective
12–80 ≥2 exacerbations
≥4 exacerbations
Asthma related admission or OCS
2 years 118,981 59,514/55
=1082.07
Age, Sex, BMI, Smoking status, Rhinitis, Eczema, Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), Nasal polyps, Anaphylaxis, Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use, Peak expiratory flow (PEF), Blood eosinophil, Mean short-acting beta agonist (SABA) use, Leukotriene receptor antagonist (LTRA) use, Long-acting beta agonist (LABA) use, Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use, Acute oral corticosteroid (OCS) use, Asthma related hospital admissions, Primary care consultations.
Finkelstein 2013 [24] Multiple Self-reported study
Retrospective
Adult High/low risk of exacerbation/ Patient defined Not reported 1862/3306 NR/147 Wheeze, Sputum production, Chest tightness, Shortness of breath, Limitation of physical activity, Over-all use of quick-relief inhaler, Exposure to triggers, Over-all asthma estimate, Presence of cold, Number of quick-relief puffs, number of preventative puffs, Sleep problems, Number of times awoken, Last night quick-relief use, Last 24 h prednisone use, Last 24 h nebulizer use, Last 24 h second controller use, Last use of quick-relief inhaler
Finkelstein 2017 [25] Multiple Self-reported study
Retrospective
Adult High/low risk of exacerbation/ Patient defined Not reported 1862/3306 NR/147 Wheeze, Sputum production, Chest tightness, Shortness of breath, Limitation of physical activity, Over-all use of quick-relief inhaler, Exposure to triggers, Over-all asthma estimate, Presence of cold, Number of quick-relief puffs, number of preventative puffs, Sleep problems, Number of times awoken, Last night quick-relief use, Last 24 h prednisone use, Last 24 h nebulizer use, Last 24 h second controller use, Last use of quick-relief inhaler
Honkoop 2013 [26] New Zealand Two studies
Retrospective
12–75 Severe exacerbation/
Asthma score
1 year 164/94 88/25
=3.52
Asthma symptoms, PEF
Loymans 2016 [27] Netherlands ACCURATE study group
Retrospective
17–55 Exacerbation
ATS/ERS
1 year 611/504 80/15
=5.33
ACQ-5 score, Current smoking status, Chronic sinusitis, Admissions, Oral steroid use, FEV1, Fractional exhaled nitrous oxide (FeNO)
McCarren 1998 [28] US Hospital cohort
Retrospective
18–55 Severe exacerbation/
Unscheduled ED visit
6 weeks 284 130/18
=7.22
3 or more emergency department (ED) visits in the last 6 months, Difficulty performing activities in the last 4 weeks, Left ED before 24 h without achieving 50% of predicted peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR)
Sato 2009 [29] Japan Hospital cohort
Prospective
62.5 ± 13.5 Severe exacerbation/
2 days < 70% PEF
Until event 78 16/4
=4.00
Asthma control test (ACT) score, FEV1, FeNO
Yii 2012 [30] Singapore Hospital cohort
Prospective
56 ± 18 and
50 ± 19
Severe exacerbation
ATS/ERS
3 years 177/84 NR/12 2 or more ED or hospital visits in the past year, BMI, History of near-fatal asthma, Depression, Obstructive sleep apnoea, GERD
  1. NR not reported