Fig. 2

Synthetic datasets for testing and demonstrating the functionality of the ensemble approaches. We simulated incidence curves from the 2-parameter Gompertz model (the “true model”) with added Poisson error structure noise (blue circles). We set parameters r = 0.4, b = 0.1086 and K = 10,000. The initial condition was set at C(0) = 1. The dashed vertical lines indicate the start and end days of the daily 20-day ahead forecasts