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Fig. 6 | BMC Medical Research Methodology

Fig. 6

From: Ensemble bootstrap methodology for forecasting dynamic growth processes using differential equations: application to epidemic outbreaks

Fig. 6

Mean performance of the individual and ensemble models in 1–20 day ahead forecasts from the synthetic data derived from the Gompertz model. As expected, we found that the “true model” (GOM) outperformed all other models based on four performance metrics although it achieved a similar coverage rate of the 95% PI to that of the Ensemble Method 2, which was close to 0.95. While the performance of the ensemble methods was not different in terms of the MAE and MSE, Ensemble Method 2 achieved significantly better coverage rate of the 95% PI and lower MIS compared to the Ensemble Method 1

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BMC Medical Research Methodology

ISSN: 1471-2288

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