Fig. 3

Predicted probability of dnDSA-free survival, conditional on survival to 12 months. Left-hand panel: black lines represent observed TAC values for a given individual with good adherence (low coefficient of variation) of TAC during the first year post-transplant. Red curve represents predicted probability from M4 (model with coefficient of variation shared parameter) of remaining dnDSA-free up to 5 years post-transplant. Blue curve represents predicted probability from M1 (base model, does not account for variability) of remaining dnDSA-free up to 5 years post-transplant. The 95% credible intervals for the predictions are indicated by the shaded regions. The right-hand figure is the same framework, but for a patient with bad TAC adherence, and who developed dnDSA sometime between 48-55 months post-transplant