Fig. 6

Pairwise confidence interval comparisons for slope change. Each plot displays up to 190 confidence intervals (CIs) (depicted as vertical lines), with each scaled so that the confidence interval from the reference method spans -0.5 to 0.5 (shaded area). The reference method is the column method (e.g. the plot in the second row, first column shows OLS CIs (blue) compared to ARIMA (purple)). Vertical lines falling entirely within the shaded area have smaller confidence intervals than the comparison (left of the vertical dashed line), while lines extending beyond the shaded area have larger confidence intervals than the comparison (right of the vertical dashed line). White dots indicate the point estimate. Black vertical lines indicate scenarios in which the point estimate from one method does not lie within the confidence interval of the other. Abbreviations: ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average, purple; OLS, ordinary least squares, blue; NW OLS with Newey-West standard error adjustments, light blue; PW, Prais-Winsten, light green; REML, restricted maximum likelihood, orange; REML-Satt, restricted maximum likelihood with Satterthwaite small sample adjustment, red