Fig. 1

Comparison of the predictive ability of the best-fit models for the three approaches investigated. Approach 1: (A1) models fitted with median FoI estimates and selected based on predictive R²; Approach 2 (A2): models fitted with median FoI estimates and selected base on predictive R² and overlap; Approach 3 (A3): models fitted with the full posterior distribution of FoI estimates and selected based on the predictive R² and overlap. Note: The overlap obtained for A1 is presented for comparison purpose and has been calculated using the same methodology as A2 but is never taken into consideration for the model selection