Fig. 3

Force-of-Infection of Chagas disease in urban, rural and indigenous settings, Colombia, 1990. Main map, predictions per year and per susceptible individual; small map, Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) Coefficient of Variation (n = 1065 municipalities) . Rows correspond to the 3 modelling approaches. Maps show model-averaged estimates (across the 10 best setting-specific models). Approach 1: models fitted using the median FoI estimates and selected based on predictive R²; Approach 2: models fitted with median FoI estimates and selected based on predictive R² and overlap; Approach 3: models fitted with the full posterior distribution of FoI estimates and selected based on the predictive R² and overlap