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Table 1 Simulation result evaluation metrics from different models in simulation scenario 1

From: Bayesian spatio-temporal distributed lag modeling for delayed climatic effects on sparse malaria incidence data

Measure

Model

π = 0.4

π = 0.8

  

ρ = 0.3

ρ = 0.8

ρ = 0.3

ρ = 0.8

Bias

ZIPGLM

0.037

0.055

−0.008

0.012

 

ZIPDLM

−0.003

0.008

−0.004

−0.006

 

GLM

−0.178

−0.438

− 0.093

−0.067

 

DLM

−0.091

−0.217

− 0.071

−0.051

RMSE

ZIPGLM

0.791

0.881

0.508

0.574

 

ZIPDLM

0.487

0.505

0.288

0.314

 

GLM

0.942

0.959

0.833

0.875

 

DLM

0.552

0.568

0.471

0.485

CrI Coverage

ZIPGLM

0.773

0.710

0.764

0.700

 

ZIPDLM

0.933

0.799

0.927

0.740

 

GLM

0.665

0.522

0.726

0.682

 

DLM

0.607

0.484

0.710

0.599

DIC (pD)

ZIPGLM

1839.276 (36.599)

1994.511 (37.958)

3577.608 (61.961)

4056.092 (63.363)

 

ZIPDLM

1838.029 (36.446)

1991.848 (35.182)

3576.794 (62.771)

4053.807 (61.442)

 

GLM

1871.325 (58.264)

2025.734 (48.241)

3610.005 (69.376)

4078.526 (69.081)

 

DLM

1868.994 (45.269)

2030.592 (45.277)

3629.755 (68.752)

4076.888 (65.247)

DICr (pDr)

ZIPGLM

1839.296 (36.579)

1998.464 (39.911)

3577.627 (61.978)

4059.542 (68.232)

 

ZIPDLM

1838.321 (36.223)

1992.372 (35.182)

3576.157 (65.141)

4055.133 (62.772)

 

GLM

1881.538 (58.264)

2035.515 (49.288)

3642.345 (81.376)

4085.638 (74.148)

 

DLM

1874.314 (50.584)

2040.936 (54.709)

3637.313 (74.097)

4082.538 (72.898)

MSPE

ZIPGLM

81.268

160.155

143.496

332.312

 

ZIPDLM

81.108

159.774

143.082

315.261

 

GLM

82.093

164.001

144.612

315.224

 

DLM

81.609

165.531

144.096

313.981

π

ZIPGLM

0.399

0.402

0.802

0.797

 

ZIPDLM

0.401

0.401

0.802

0.797

 

GLM

 

DLM