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Table 2 Simulation result evaluation metrics from different models in simulation scenario 2

From: Bayesian spatio-temporal distributed lag modeling for delayed climatic effects on sparse malaria incidence data

Measure

Model

π = 0.4

π = 0.8

  

ρ = 0.3

ρ = 0.8

ρ = 0.3

ρ = 0.8

Bias

ZIPGLM

0.131

−0.052

0.082

0.008

 

ZIPDLM

−0.039

−0.021

−0.014

−0.002

 

GLM

−0.157

−0.408

−0.119

−0.099

 

DLM

−0.175

−0.418

−0.091

−0.081

RMSE

ZIPGLM

0.874

0.932

0.727

0.559

 

ZIPDLM

0.522

0.608

0.388

0.291

 

GLM

1.186

1.124

0.828

0.669

 

DLM

0.619

0.702

0.434

0.328

CrI Coverage

ZIPGLM

0.712

0.700

0.750

0.740

 

ZIPDLM

0.933

0.817

0.923

0.803

 

GLM

0.632

0.580

0.755

0.695

 

DLM

0.619

0.468

0.756

0.630

DIC (pD)

ZIPGLM

1720.445 (35.864)

2012.758 (38.732)

3635.735 (62.453)

3983.145 (69.391)

 

ZIPDLM

1718.355 (34.256)

2011.769 (37.748)

3633.122 (60.932)

3969.928 (61.206)

 

GLM

1762.11 (48.589)

2058.123 (50.145)

3660.459 (68.444)

4002.552 (74.235)

 

DLM

1754.994 (44.321)

2053.159 (46.978)

3658.244 (64.442)

4000.879 (72.926)

DICr (pDr)

ZIPGLM

1723.112 (39.782)

2016.447 (42.552)

3638.445 (65.534)

3986.157 (70.763)

 

ZIPDLM

1719.562 (35.834)

2012.224 (38.026)

3634.559 (61.952)

3970.251 (62.529)

 

GLM

1764.965 (55.123)

2059.624 (53.998)

3672.428 (79.952)

4009.482 (75.992)

 

DLM

1762.889 (52.216)

2051.223 (52.217)

3667.393 (73.591)

4005.938 (73.576)

MSPE

ZIPGLM

98.299

140.603

196.451

289.122

 

ZIPDLM

97.002

140.102

196.112

288.112

 

GLM

99.506

140.989

197.125

289.756

 

DLM

98.954

140.559

196.478

288.422

π

ZIPGLM

0.3976

0.425

0.789

0.789

 

ZIPDLM

0.3976

0.425

0.791

0.791

 

GLM

 

DLM