Table 5 Virtual re-execution of shortlisted designs using bootstrapped ANZ 9311 data
From: Improving clinical trials using Bayesian adaptive designs: a breast cancer example
Design | Duration (months), mean (SD) | Sample size, mean (SD) | Probability of success (%) | Probability of inconclusive (%) | Hazard ratio, median (IQR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fixed | 76.7 (3.93) | 233 (0.0) | 0.13 | – | 1.16 (1.06, 1.28) |
Small sample size | |||||
Posterior | 55.2 (32.3) | 164 (51.3) | 0.10 | 15.7 | 1.27 (1.15, 1.43) |
PPS | 36.9 (13.1) | 134 (51.8) | 0.13 | 0.05 | 1.32 (1.10, 1.62) |
CPS | 42.3 (9.7) | 154 (28.9) | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1.15 (1.03, 1.36) |
Goldilocks | 36.9 (13.1) | 134 (51.8) | 0.14 | 0.05 | 1.32 (1.10, 1.62) |
PPBS | 41.0 (5.6) | 152 (26.6) | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.15 (1.02, 1.36) |
High power | |||||
Posterior | 88.1 (35.4) | 214 (32.5) | 0.10 | 48.5 | 1.22 (1.07, 1.43) |
PPS | 53.6 (9.2) | 218 (14.6) | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1.17 (1.07, 1.33) |
CPS | 52.0 (8.1) | 213 (15.1) | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1.17 (1.03, 1.33) |
Goldilocks | 53.5 (9.2) | 218 (14.6) | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1.17 (1.07, 1.33) |
PPBS | 50.9 (4.5) | 214 (15.1) | 0.18 | 0.00 | 1.17 (1.03, 1.33) |